{ "ticker": { "uuid": "939a2285-bfd7-425c-85f1-eb4a7faebfe2", "symbol": "WEB3", "name": "ETC Group Web 3.0 UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.148, "architecture_energy": 17.136, "architecture_maturity": 26.1, "architecture_confidence": 54.148, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.38, "rotation_up": 23.1, "upward_expansion": 15.18, "deceleration": 60.71, "rotation_down": 34.44, "downward_expansion": 60.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.659133, 10.577909, 10.860179, 10.924098 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.262, "trend_reference": 11.145983, "distance_from_trend": 0.010409, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.312417, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.004457, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.196588, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.023752, "excess_performance": -0.074987, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010409, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073066, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.004457, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04577, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.161966, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007116, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.023752, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.388584, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 116, "relative_activity": 0.092841, "balance": 6.388584, "dry_up": 0.359758, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071496, "annualized_volatility": 0.379856, "from_high_reference": -0.299017, "from_low_reference": 0.199744 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.145983, "fair_value_reference": 11.312417, "structural_low": 9.387, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.010075, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 4e-05, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.122931, "worst_return": -0.131024, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.104208, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.097909, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.332731, "worst_return": -0.113248, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.126121, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.035187, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.457897, "worst_return": -0.205655, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -22.576294, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.291216, "energy": 61.798417, "activity_lines": [ 10.433733, 10.707955, 10.932676, 11.050284 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.484, "volume": 9, "typical_volume": 1171.4, "trend": 11.298683, "fair_value": 11.2845, "relative_strength": -22.028954, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.737621, "energy": 35.922056, "activity_lines": [ 10.450367, 10.611709, 10.889264, 10.992141 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.188, "volume": 1670, "typical_volume": 1247.2, "trend": 11.205983, "fair_value": 11.29325, "relative_strength": -24.529908, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.493042, "energy": 37.747559, "activity_lines": [ 10.3872, 10.479427, 10.821852, 10.920484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.262, "volume": 116, "typical_volume": 1249.45, "trend": 11.145983, "fair_value": 11.312417, "relative_strength": -16.196588, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.148058, "energy": 17.135928, "activity_lines": [ 10.659133, 10.577909, 10.860179, 10.924098 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }