{ "ticker": { "uuid": "93a16648-a704-448d-94ce-f509ca7e8476", "symbol": "TCW", "name": "Trican Well Service Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.181, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.335, "architecture_energy": 73.484, "architecture_maturity": 18.731, "architecture_confidence": 82.544, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.25, "rotation_up": 9.68, "upward_expansion": 16.07, "deceleration": 37.57, "rotation_down": 73.04, "downward_expansion": 89.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.236667, 6.466438, 6.799453, 6.891771 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.0, "trend_reference": 6.929476, "distance_from_trend": -0.134134, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.010691, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.19744, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.703438, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.164573, "excess_performance": -0.284994, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.134134, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045746, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.19744, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.226216, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.167034, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181679, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.164573, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.855102, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5258400, "relative_activity": 1.863029, "balance": 0.855102, "dry_up": 1.594553, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08361, "annualized_volatility": 0.46883, "from_high_reference": -0.280344, "from_low_reference": 0.176213 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.929476, "fair_value_reference": 5.010691, "structural_low": 5.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.04354, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.012188, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.208054, "worst_return": -0.082589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.009345, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.017035, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.35906, "worst_return": 0.00126, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.26, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.153142, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.500487, "worst_return": 0.075999, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.396515, 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"2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095122, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006451, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.253898, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.068065, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.207619, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.213626, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097358, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126234, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010558, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.101796, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.1682, "volume": 5046300, "typical_volume": 3992135.0, "trend": 3.064598, "fair_value": 2.591093, "relative_strength": 35.799861, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.663584, "energy": 93.807546, 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1968100, "typical_volume": 2551225.0, "trend": 6.901698, "fair_value": 4.967319, "relative_strength": -5.092183, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.307327, "energy": 44.820396, "activity_lines": [ 6.666, 6.911731, 7.057185, 7.032901 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.65, "volume": 2703000, "typical_volume": 2488480.0, "trend": 6.929928, "fair_value": 4.986625, "relative_strength": -5.731799, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.606541, "energy": 48.204341, "activity_lines": [ 6.645333, 6.820015, 7.013115, 7.016663 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.92, "volume": 8073000, "typical_volume": 2726655.0, "trend": 6.925889, "fair_value": 4.998776, "relative_strength": -15.446842, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -52.932774, "energy": 61.988785, "activity_lines": [ 6.404, 6.617046, 6.900212, 6.951506 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.0, "volume": 5258400, "typical_volume": 2822500.0, "trend": 6.929476, "fair_value": 5.010691, "relative_strength": -16.703438, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.335375, "energy": 73.484224, "activity_lines": [ 6.236667, 6.466438, 6.799453, 6.891771 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }