{ "ticker": { "uuid": "93a90dfc-9308-460f-82aa-54ab3a90c36e", "symbol": "GBX", "name": "Greenbrier Companies Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 88.941, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.689, "architecture_energy": 16.589, "architecture_maturity": 29.638, "architecture_confidence": 64.27, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.59, "rotation_up": 30.42, "upward_expansion": 31.32, "deceleration": 44.56, "rotation_down": 33.46, "downward_expansion": 46.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.09919, 48.935259, 48.838665, 49.546955 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 47.22, "trend_reference": 50.489307, "distance_from_trend": -0.064752, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.733247, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.010752, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.565283, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.129208, "excess_performance": -0.254833, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.064752, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025468, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.010752, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095373, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125653, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070854, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.129208, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.836789, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1674077, "relative_activity": 0.721905, "balance": 0.836789, "dry_up": 0.909719, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07115, "annualized_volatility": 0.250456, "from_high_reference": -0.196735, "from_low_reference": 0.261078 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.489307, "fair_value_reference": 47.733247, "structural_low": 44.847071, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.010211, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": -0.02032, "regime_survival": 0.47619, "best_return": 0.373505, "worst_return": -0.155172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.024252, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.022476, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.310272, "worst_return": -0.022761, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.169202, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.069764, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.319479, 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"Developing", "return": 0.091197, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.130533, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.111466, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003533, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063751, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00382, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 46.987849, "volume": 3515612, "typical_volume": 2195338.8, "trend": 50.067395, "fair_value": 47.543449, "relative_strength": -11.491945, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.414516, "energy": 24.18156, "activity_lines": [ 48.035556, 48.007323, 48.805462, 49.712109 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.02, "volume": 2857844, "typical_volume": 2277179.2, "trend": 50.209793, "fair_value": 47.598542, "relative_strength": -4.054377, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.00911, "energy": 16.131854, "activity_lines": [ 48.611163, 48.34558, 48.819808, 49.709051 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.12, "volume": 1991552, "typical_volume": 2310907.1, "trend": 50.403113, "fair_value": 47.664945, "relative_strength": 0.633564, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.350522, "energy": 4.569795, "activity_lines": [ 49.742245, 49.075291, 49.062793, 49.83229 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.25, "volume": 1914980, "typical_volume": 2335299.4, "trend": 50.489582, "fair_value": 47.701779, "relative_strength": -5.832805, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.389808, "energy": 12.02243, "activity_lines": [ 49.732798, 49.201729, 49.042286, 49.757896 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.22, "volume": 1674077, "typical_volume": 2318972.2, "trend": 50.489307, "fair_value": 47.733247, "relative_strength": -12.565283, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.688759, "energy": 16.589221, "activity_lines": [ 49.09919, 48.935259, 48.838665, 49.546955 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }