{ "ticker": { "uuid": "93b72057-bfd0-4659-96c0-d28ba3e65c67", "symbol": "KCAR", "name": "Krungthai Car Rent and Lease Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 61.331, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 38.633, "architecture_energy": 53.174, "architecture_maturity": 6.755, "architecture_confidence": 77.845, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.89, "rotation_up": 76.24, "upward_expansion": 50.84, "deceleration": 18.06, "rotation_down": 14.58, "downward_expansion": 27.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.934667, 4.898909, 4.841333, 4.845547 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 4.96, "trend_reference": 4.913638, "distance_from_trend": 0.009435, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.093456, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.026201, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.30664, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.063141, "excess_performance": -0.255466, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009435, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020838, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.026201, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085595, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153066, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016493, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.063141, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.82397, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 149800, "relative_activity": 1.264402, "balance": 4.82397, "dry_up": 0.992614, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013958, "annualized_volatility": 0.207078, "from_high_reference": -0.1272, "from_low_reference": 0.121587 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.913638, "fair_value_reference": 5.093456, "structural_low": 4.64, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.014636, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.007167, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.024096, "worst_return": -0.028902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.030398, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.037136, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.122222, "worst_return": -0.040462, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.03921, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.095652, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.244186, "worst_return": -0.058709, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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4.898667, 4.858545, 4.810288, 4.842637 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.94, "volume": 47400, "typical_volume": 130430.0, "trend": 4.923162, "fair_value": 5.108737, "relative_strength": -16.423541, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 19.194383, "energy": 49.764175, "activity_lines": [ 4.917333, 4.878545, 4.825333, 4.843171 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.96, "volume": 149800, "typical_volume": 118475.0, "trend": 4.913638, "fair_value": 5.093456, "relative_strength": -15.30664, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.632957, "energy": 53.17381, "activity_lines": [ 4.934667, 4.898909, 4.841333, 4.845547 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }