{ "ticker": { "uuid": "93bbf6db-3c9d-4dcd-a045-67064aadef96", "symbol": "9603", "name": "H.I.S. Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 37.966, "architecture_energy": 44.706, "architecture_maturity": 91.393, "architecture_confidence": 77.491, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.23, "rotation_up": 69.64, "upward_expansion": 38.93, "deceleration": 40.65, "rotation_down": 16.7, "downward_expansion": 25.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 1113.0, 1066.054545, 1045.390476, 1056.802151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1152.0, "trend_reference": 1093.766667, "distance_from_trend": 0.053241, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1494.647531, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.22925, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.164872, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.087163, "excess_performance": -0.248897, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053241, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077328, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.22925, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11979, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.211649, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.194402, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.087163, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.313608, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1792500, "relative_activity": 0.957307, "balance": 4.313608, "dry_up": 1.488846, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049813, "annualized_volatility": 0.283132, "from_high_reference": -0.23579, "from_low_reference": 0.230769 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1093.766667, "fair_value_reference": 1494.647531, "structural_low": 936.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.013059, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.000325, "regime_survival": 0.742857, "best_return": 0.147368, "worst_return": -0.161719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.01951, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.056864, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.193548, "worst_return": -0.182031, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.04, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.059548, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.231281, "worst_return": -0.111163, 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"typical_volume": 1978895.0, "trend": 1113.166667, "fair_value": 1511.637061, "relative_strength": -31.27763, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.15604, "energy": 32.164506, "activity_lines": [ 1004.0, 998.618182, 1017.604762, 1051.137634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1117.0, "volume": 3513900, "typical_volume": 1991725.0, "trend": 1106.066667, "fair_value": 1505.327227, "relative_strength": -25.317493, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.528776, "energy": 12.40912, "activity_lines": [ 1042.0, 1018.981818, 1025.357143, 1051.384946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 1138.0, "volume": 1590800, "typical_volume": 1916625.0, "trend": 1099.966667, "fair_value": 1499.891916, "relative_strength": -26.296979, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 17.024496, "energy": 28.658332, "activity_lines": [ 1080.0, 1041.890909, 1034.861905, 1053.445161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 1152.0, "volume": 1792500, "typical_volume": 1872440.0, "trend": 1093.766667, "fair_value": 1494.647531, "relative_strength": -21.164872, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.966094, "energy": 44.705756, "activity_lines": [ 1113.0, 1066.054545, 1045.390476, 1056.802151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }