{ "ticker": { "uuid": "93bf9f1d-4c5e-4901-945d-ce1e2ddbe311", "symbol": "FPTVN19", "name": "FPT Corporation", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.851, "architecture_energy": 48.207, "architecture_maturity": 24.352, "architecture_confidence": 84.307, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.44, "rotation_up": 16.12, "upward_expansion": 5.94, "deceleration": 51.02, "rotation_down": 62.8, "downward_expansion": 79.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.726667, 8.849091, 8.987133, 9.234314 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.05, "trend_reference": 9.819109, "distance_from_trend": -0.078328, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.350095, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.267212, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.107919, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.242042, "excess_performance": -0.434367, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.078328, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08817, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.267212, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04263, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.281079, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072931, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.242042, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.660379, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2649883, "relative_activity": 1.674177, "balance": 0.660379, "dry_up": 1.76226, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051477, "annualized_volatility": 0.270805, "from_high_reference": -0.299901, "from_low_reference": 0.110429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.819109, "fair_value_reference": 12.350095, "structural_low": 8.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.033333, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.075648, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.033333, "worst_return": -0.033333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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-31.757352, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.472552, "energy": 43.746278, "activity_lines": [ 9.123333, 9.146632, 9.203952, 9.599112 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.7, "volume": 4542790, "typical_volume": 1690887.8, "trend": 10.11688, "fair_value": 12.482836, "relative_strength": -34.559584, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.113508, "energy": 50.781388, "activity_lines": [ 8.976667, 9.068723, 9.140396, 9.501794 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.25, "volume": 2323816, "typical_volume": 1640875.8, "trend": 10.016906, "fair_value": 12.433038, "relative_strength": -37.194122, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.448702, "energy": 63.005831, "activity_lines": [ 8.723333, 8.913178, 9.045653, 9.38135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.6, "volume": 1640713, "typical_volume": 1607717.0, "trend": 9.912152, "fair_value": 12.388468, "relative_strength": -32.909606, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.639057, "energy": 64.55899, "activity_lines": [ 8.636667, 8.833636, 8.992886, 9.289937 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.05, "volume": 2649883, "typical_volume": 1582797.3, "trend": 9.819109, "fair_value": 12.350095, "relative_strength": -28.107919, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.851431, "energy": 48.206575, "activity_lines": [ 8.726667, 8.849091, 8.987133, 9.234314 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }