{ "ticker": { "uuid": "93c74fac-abe0-44e5-ac92-fc2dfa462026", "symbol": "GOYALALUM", "name": "Goyal Aluminiums Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.907, "architecture_energy": 48.648, "architecture_maturity": 28.814, "architecture_confidence": 80.264, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.86, "rotation_up": 9.53, "upward_expansion": 16.21, "deceleration": 44.9, "rotation_down": 67.73, "downward_expansion": 82.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.524, 6.645455, 6.744619, 6.734172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 6.43, "trend_reference": 6.841667, "distance_from_trend": -0.060171, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.462756, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.2402, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.530065, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.13459, "excess_performance": -0.09088, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060171, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019959, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.2402, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030352, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.075301, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079002, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.13459, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.39601, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 288843, "relative_activity": 0.900274, "balance": 0.39601, "dry_up": 0.898936, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066994, "annualized_volatility": 0.3023, "from_high_reference": -0.434477, "from_low_reference": 0.20412 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.841667, "fair_value_reference": 8.462756, "structural_low": 5.34, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.011333, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029503, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.134206, "worst_return": -0.146648, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.034916, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.019469, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.047867, "worst_return": -0.093074, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.040024, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.071502, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.05307, "worst_return": -0.133117, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001095, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.09319, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.009642, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.207889, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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8.636987, "relative_strength": 0.727626, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.176461, "energy": 11.004199, "activity_lines": [ 6.930667, 6.905455, 6.800238, 6.874602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 6.8, "volume": 71787, "typical_volume": 333923.6, "trend": 6.979667, "fair_value": 8.594359, "relative_strength": -2.3358, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.191671, "energy": 9.20507, "activity_lines": [ 6.902667, 6.882182, 6.807048, 6.863548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.65, "volume": 422899, "typical_volume": 337555.4, "trend": 6.974, "fair_value": 8.552372, "relative_strength": -3.938018, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.474263, "energy": 13.237815, "activity_lines": [ 6.819333, 6.836, 6.801286, 6.84228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.68, "volume": 227242, "typical_volume": 332868.9, "trend": 6.969333, "fair_value": 8.512179, "relative_strength": -3.710079, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.479312, "energy": 18.824398, "activity_lines": [ 6.758, 6.803273, 6.800143, 6.823312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.54, "volume": 224853, "typical_volume": 323661.15, "trend": 6.962333, "fair_value": 8.489359, "relative_strength": -3.249651, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.276361, "energy": 34.884666, "activity_lines": [ 6.662667, 6.752909, 6.786571, 6.795613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.52, "volume": 412717, "typical_volume": 323361.15, "trend": 6.94, "fair_value": 8.472179, "relative_strength": -5.754189, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.448503, "energy": 39.282364, "activity_lines": [ 6.593333, 6.705636, 6.770857, 6.767075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.43, "volume": 288843, "typical_volume": 320838.95, "trend": 6.841667, "fair_value": 8.462756, "relative_strength": -7.530065, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.907131, "energy": 48.647654, "activity_lines": [ 6.524, 6.645455, 6.744619, 6.734172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }