{ "ticker": { "uuid": "93dbcc31-56eb-463d-8c9d-8475550ebb88", "symbol": "603178", "name": "Ningbo Shenglong Automotive Powertrain System Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.655, "architecture_energy": 16.397, "architecture_maturity": 22.267, "architecture_confidence": 64.245, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.49, "rotation_up": 25.44, "upward_expansion": 17.01, "deceleration": 54.54, "rotation_down": 34.62, "downward_expansion": 60.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.413333, 16.127091, 16.846333, 16.94686 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 17.049999, "trend_reference": 17.192, "distance_from_trend": -0.00826, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.444061, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.204908, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.907456, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.023482, "excess_performance": 0.019722, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00826, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051301, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.204908, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173439, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.059075, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047557, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.023482, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.74794, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 79062831, "relative_activity": 1.242289, "balance": 0.74794, "dry_up": 1.285279, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142206, "annualized_volatility": 0.53139, "from_high_reference": -0.306629, "from_low_reference": 0.225737 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.192, "fair_value_reference": 21.444061, "structural_low": 13.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.044007, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.002216, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.312205, "worst_return": -0.147816, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.081182, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.021206, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.359599, "worst_return": -0.257566, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.006275, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010798, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 3.90751, "worst_return": -0.157227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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16.397142, "activity_lines": [ 16.413333, 16.127091, 16.846333, 16.94686 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }