{ "ticker": { "uuid": "93e11e77-768c-43fb-861c-a6d5a8924d33", "symbol": "IWC", "name": "ISHARES TRUST MICRO-CAP ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.337, "architecture_energy": 35.915, "architecture_maturity": 51.426, "architecture_confidence": 84.946, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.92, "rotation_up": 40.76, "upward_expansion": 65.83, "deceleration": 84.91, "rotation_down": 26.44, "downward_expansion": 15.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 192.429333, 192.619563, 189.388638, 184.116046 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 199.11, "trend_reference": 177.995271, "distance_from_trend": 0.118625, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 132.351715, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.504401, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.901364, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.184176, "excess_performance": 0.058551, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.118625, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070557, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.504401, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026457, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.069014, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030268, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.184176, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.461998, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 431327, "relative_activity": 0.780111, "balance": 1.461998, "dry_up": 0.557076, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04367, "annualized_volatility": 0.203841, "from_high_reference": -0.020514, "from_low_reference": 0.528362 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 177.995271, "fair_value_reference": 132.351715, "structural_low": 152.120276, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.025753, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.012668, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.147226, "worst_return": -0.109371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.073631, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.032307, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.138119, "worst_return": -0.182848, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.140041, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.043045, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.221921, "worst_return": 0.058161, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"typical_volume": 563012.65, "trend": 174.979103, "fair_value": 130.759989, "relative_strength": 8.217327, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.727317, "energy": 61.196943, "activity_lines": [ 194.316, 192.117946, 186.391041, 181.134544 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 187.19, "volume": 334740, "typical_volume": 557629.7, "trend": 175.88522, "fair_value": 131.254541, "relative_strength": 5.986748, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.679842, "energy": 43.669341, "activity_lines": [ 191.930667, 191.612843, 187.121014, 181.922344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 187.65, "volume": 190849, "typical_volume": 548724.75, "trend": 176.872394, "fair_value": 131.759404, "relative_strength": 4.710673, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.233141, "energy": 29.617559, "activity_lines": [ 190.028, 191.087037, 187.77621, 182.681362 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 199.11, "volume": 431327, "typical_volume": 552905.0, "trend": 177.995271, "fair_value": 132.351715, "relative_strength": 6.901364, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.336859, "energy": 35.914575, "activity_lines": [ 192.429333, 192.619563, 189.388638, 184.116046 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }