{ "ticker": { "uuid": "93e202e2-9759-403b-9628-1c6bea40d985", "symbol": "ZTAX", "name": "X-SQUARE MUNICIPAL INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 52.079, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 10.837, "architecture_energy": 11.623, "architecture_maturity": 13.001, "architecture_confidence": 51.908, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.97, "rotation_up": 44.22, "upward_expansion": 41.62, "deceleration": 27.72, "rotation_down": 24.59, "downward_expansion": 16.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.386333, 25.303106, 25.125476, 25.167167 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 25.525, "trend_reference": 25.209686, "distance_from_trend": 0.012508, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.32314, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.049412, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.07616, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.008268, "excess_performance": -0.117356, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012508, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002162, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.049412, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018293, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090762, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016242, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008268, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.140352, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1657, "relative_activity": 0.156047, "balance": 1.140352, "dry_up": 0.410742, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054561, "annualized_volatility": 0.125724, "from_high_reference": -0.10892, "from_low_reference": 0.10222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.209686, "fair_value_reference": 24.32314, "structural_low": 24.45, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.010083, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.011341, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.021642, "worst_return": -0.059785, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.014288, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.031705, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.02457, "worst_return": -0.037943, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.002621, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.041285, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.058618, "worst_return": -0.06386, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.168204, "energy": 7.133081, "activity_lines": [ 25.19556, 25.045934, 25.033303, 25.114503 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.43, "volume": 1866, "typical_volume": 10644.25, "trend": 25.200226, "fair_value": 24.283147, "relative_strength": -5.704431, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.531478, "energy": 7.550574, "activity_lines": [ 25.26756, 25.139005, 25.060873, 25.129669 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.45, "volume": 1716, "typical_volume": 10716.15, "trend": 25.193563, "fair_value": 24.302719, "relative_strength": -6.429635, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.154837, "energy": 6.078556, "activity_lines": [ 25.309333, 25.221517, 25.088023, 25.145784 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.525, "volume": 1657, "typical_volume": 10618.6, "trend": 25.209686, "fair_value": 24.32314, "relative_strength": -9.07616, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.836536, "energy": 11.6225, "activity_lines": [ 25.386333, 25.303106, 25.125476, 25.167167 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }