{ "ticker": { "uuid": "93e2e317-8209-4a3a-a145-416ce0a11869", "symbol": "BOSS", "name": "Hugo Boss AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 77.273, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.834, "architecture_energy": 31.733, "architecture_maturity": 15.311, "architecture_confidence": 40.848, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.48, "rotation_up": 36.54, "upward_expansion": 60.82, "deceleration": 59.5, "rotation_down": 23.15, "downward_expansion": 15.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.922667, 37.960727, 37.479492, 37.201582 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 37.91, "trend_reference": 36.783823, "distance_from_trend": 0.030616, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.138464, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.121202, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.799993, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.051597, "excess_performance": -0.12265, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030616, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011594, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.121202, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082958, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.188, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02255, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.051597, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5, "relative_activity": 0.416667, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.104167, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02189, "annualized_volatility": 0.207241, "from_high_reference": -0.128939, "from_low_reference": 0.111661 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.783823, "fair_value_reference": 43.138464, "structural_low": 34.771364, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.058824, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.036439, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.136895, "worst_return": -0.097955, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.016357, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.085694, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.162188, "worst_return": -0.110017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.057249, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.047311, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.116357, "worst_return": -0.180157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046064, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077835, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004587, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017497, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089343, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024514, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.062554, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021536, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046371, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003417, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 65.572281, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 21.55, "trend": 62.343559, "fair_value": 45.117185, "relative_strength": 17.536108, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 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59.958938, "activity_lines": [ 37.760667, 37.057376, 36.800311, 36.603939 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 37.830002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 166.75, "trend": 36.428464, "fair_value": 44.283414, "relative_strength": -20.255566, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.205651, "energy": 61.724359, "activity_lines": [ 37.999334, 37.245606, 36.909925, 36.693119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 37.82, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 166.75, "trend": 36.528753, "fair_value": 44.105876, "relative_strength": -21.459443, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.324485, "energy": 65.70185, "activity_lines": [ 38.090001, 37.429983, 37.01011, 36.782896 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 37.869999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 166.75, "trend": 36.565781, "fair_value": 43.901447, "relative_strength": -19.640029, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.4296, "energy": 58.452595, "activity_lines": [ 38.062667, 37.590904, 37.110195, 36.869428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.869999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 166.75, "trend": 36.591488, "fair_value": 43.700268, "relative_strength": -17.409612, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.676779, "energy": 36.2084, "activity_lines": [ 37.901333, 37.725272, 37.207227, 36.953571 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.84, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 99.75, "trend": 36.645164, "fair_value": 43.502269, "relative_strength": -17.9116, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.974526, "energy": 33.164941, "activity_lines": [ 37.850666, 37.824, 37.298918, 37.03412 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.040001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 11.75, "trend": 36.709168, "fair_value": 43.319158, "relative_strength": -16.772027, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.739533, "energy": 32.259335, "activity_lines": [ 37.915333, 37.925818, 37.397898, 37.124109 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.91, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 12.0, "trend": 36.783823, "fair_value": 43.138464, "relative_strength": -18.799993, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.833816, "energy": 31.733073, "activity_lines": [ 37.922667, 37.960727, 37.479492, 37.201582 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }