{ "ticker": { "uuid": "93e54970-8619-4f53-abc2-9ec5847c0be9", "symbol": "YANG", "name": "DIREXION DAILY FTSE CHINA BEAR 3X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -13.577, "architecture_energy": 28.328, "architecture_maturity": 64.162, "architecture_confidence": 64.676, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.58, "rotation_up": 14.75, "upward_expansion": 28.62, "deceleration": 76.03, "rotation_down": 60.32, "downward_expansion": 27.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.706667, 31.628726, 31.264178, 30.438933 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 26.96, "trend_reference": 28.819624, "distance_from_trend": -0.064526, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 97.209076, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.72266, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.986612, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.188804, "excess_performance": 0.063179, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.064526, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122628, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.72266, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040784, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089866, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037532, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.188804, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.548069, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2946320, "relative_activity": 0.647056, "balance": 1.548069, "dry_up": 0.784612, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156281, "annualized_volatility": 0.598865, "from_high_reference": -0.36144, "from_low_reference": 0.363488 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.819624, "fair_value_reference": 97.209076, "structural_low": 21.95427, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.040296, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.006682, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.317319, "worst_return": -0.467866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.197583, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.22423, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.158038, "worst_return": -0.389413, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.294845, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.408777, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.167302, "worst_return": -0.36374, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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32.19, "volume": 4133836, "typical_volume": 5254508.8, "trend": 28.30497, "fair_value": 99.628167, "relative_strength": 11.84776, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.826156, "energy": 56.652333, "activity_lines": [ 35.524245, 34.485915, 32.072519, 30.538277 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.88, "volume": 2990554, "typical_volume": 4928446.0, "trend": 28.543655, "fair_value": 98.930046, "relative_strength": 7.876025, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.525027, "energy": 29.162466, "activity_lines": [ 33.713333, 34.07245, 32.077538, 30.704408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.15, "volume": 4219964, "typical_volume": 4760008.7, "trend": 28.681196, "fair_value": 98.129414, "relative_strength": -9.039245, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.225873, "energy": 18.118363, "activity_lines": [ 30.589333, 32.745071, 31.626269, 30.549978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.96, "volume": 2946320, "typical_volume": 4553420.7, "trend": 28.819624, "fair_value": 97.209076, "relative_strength": -8.986612, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.577139, "energy": 28.327845, "activity_lines": [ 28.706667, 31.628726, 31.264178, 30.438933 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }