{ "ticker": { "uuid": "93e6c413-cb50-4246-81bb-9d334dbff6a3", "symbol": "EFAX", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR MSCI EAFE FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES FREE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.989, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.694, "architecture_energy": 60.607, "architecture_maturity": 35.758, "architecture_confidence": 77.461, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.68, "rotation_up": 60.96, "upward_expansion": 83.57, "deceleration": 51.53, "rotation_down": 20.4, "downward_expansion": 10.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.822573, 54.421442, 53.699595, 53.00447 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 56.339, "trend_reference": 52.388294, "distance_from_trend": 0.075412, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.712776, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.31902, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.724599, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.069201, "excess_performance": -0.056424, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.075412, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033115, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.31902, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03357, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.007246, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02293, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.069201, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.573534, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 241226, "relative_activity": 2.049068, "balance": 0.573534, "dry_up": 0.825901, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025777, "annualized_volatility": 0.191719, "from_high_reference": -0.003026, "from_low_reference": 0.226748 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.388294, "fair_value_reference": 42.712776, "structural_low": 47.147333, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.009208, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.00424, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.060838, "worst_return": -0.083964, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.036553, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.031564, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.081191, "worst_return": -0.0819, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.056908, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.048814, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.134744, "worst_return": -0.050577, "sufficient": true }, { 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57.688208, "energy": 43.897005, "activity_lines": [ 53.991573, 53.748089, 52.932898, 52.47166 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.5, "volume": 69760, "typical_volume": 117071.9, "trend": 52.066078, "fair_value": 42.441514, "relative_strength": -1.340221, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.903633, "energy": 37.482998, "activity_lines": [ 53.81032, 53.764724, 53.081869, 52.571689 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.6509, "volume": 29101, "typical_volume": 109649.9, "trend": 52.215715, "fair_value": 42.571322, "relative_strength": -0.328259, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.848355, "energy": 40.223437, "activity_lines": [ 54.075633, 53.95546, 53.324037, 52.738452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.339, "volume": 241226, "typical_volume": 117724.75, "trend": 52.388294, "fair_value": 42.712776, "relative_strength": -0.724599, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.694429, "energy": 60.606675, "activity_lines": [ 54.822573, 54.421442, 53.699595, 53.00447 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }