{ "ticker": { "uuid": "93e8356e-9c87-410b-9c32-ca6771e90a22", "symbol": "RS2U", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi Russell 2000", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.842, "architecture_energy": 51.215, "architecture_maturity": 61.207, "architecture_confidence": 81.445, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.48, "rotation_up": 43.55, "upward_expansion": 67.57, "deceleration": 88.02, "rotation_down": 27.59, "downward_expansion": 19.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 446.063328, 446.436624, 439.213048, 427.921371 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 454.929993, "trend_reference": 415.292829, "distance_from_trend": 0.095444, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 335.330263, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.356662, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.875744, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.146931, "excess_performance": 0.09362, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095444, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06225, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.356662, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0283, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.078757, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076714, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.146931, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.285403, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1539, "relative_activity": 0.91022, "balance": 0.285403, "dry_up": 2.058641, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023618, "annualized_volatility": 0.153029, "from_high_reference": -0.006095, "from_low_reference": 0.374826 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 415.292829, "fair_value_reference": 335.330263, "structural_low": 359.997009, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.029048, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.005013, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.081446, "worst_return": -0.08066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.037794, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.019744, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.202375, "worst_return": -0.183794, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.10927, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.008608, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.225958, "worst_return": -0.006297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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413.232793, "fair_value": 334.213289, "relative_strength": 6.672962, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.875314, "energy": 44.172997, "activity_lines": [ 442.637331, 444.39171, 436.232622, 425.231229 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 454.929993, "volume": 1539, "typical_volume": 1690.8, "trend": 415.292829, "fair_value": 335.330263, "relative_strength": 7.875744, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.841855, "energy": 51.215431, "activity_lines": [ 446.063328, 446.436624, 439.213048, 427.921371 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }