{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "93ea388d-b97e-496d-94b1-57970b6a0831",
    "symbol": "XGSD",
    "name": "Xtrackers Stoxx Global Select Dividend 100 Swap UCITS ETF 1D",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 89.674,
    "architecture_energy": 96.171,
    "architecture_maturity": 41.736,
    "architecture_confidence": 68.532,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 0.0,
        "rotation_up": 89.14,
        "upward_expansion": 99.97,
        "deceleration": 39.0,
        "rotation_down": 8.25,
        "downward_expansion": 21.97
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        38.929333,
        38.262818,
        37.480881,
        36.830443
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 39.439999,
    "trend_reference": 35.962402,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.096701,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 28.289838,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.39414,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 0.165012,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.139541,
    "excess_performance": -0.031351,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.096701,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.058005,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.39414,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.061531,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.00165,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.00047,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.139541,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 7.29008,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 40021,
      "relative_activity": 1.481927,
      "balance": 7.29008,
      "dry_up": 1.85875,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.013636,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.07245,
      "from_high_reference": -0.001013,
      "from_low_reference": 0.331751
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 35.962402,
      "fair_value_reference": 28.289838,
      "structural_low": 33.000563,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 43,
        "median_return": 0.012356,
        "positive_rate": 0.651163,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.651163,
        "median_excess_return": 0.006096,
        "regime_survival": 0.813953,
        "best_return": 0.052831,
        "worst_return": -0.078213,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 15,
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        "positive_rate": 0.866667,
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        "median_excess_return": 0.010434,
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        "best_return": 0.085882,
        "worst_return": -0.040768,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
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        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.00664,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
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        "worst_return": -0.054023,
        "sufficient": true
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      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "worst_return": -0.008716,
        "sufficient": false
      }
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 27.863902,
        "relative_strength": -2.508303,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 76094,
        "typical_volume": 28951.95,
        "trend": 35.313051,
        "fair_value": 27.967784,
        "relative_strength": 1.025082,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 93.317375,
        "activity_lines": [
          37.586001,
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          36.683849,
          36.142149
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 38.700001,
        "volume": 33972,
        "typical_volume": 28178.0,
        "trend": 35.529244,
        "fair_value": 28.070094,
        "relative_strength": 2.063381,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 92.306832,
        "energy": 95.391027,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.031667,
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          36.933138,
          36.360662
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 39.119999,
        "volume": 50703,
        "typical_volume": 27119.55,
        "trend": 35.749146,
        "fair_value": 28.178713,
        "relative_strength": 2.356951,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 91.211166,
        "energy": 96.075841,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.5,
          37.912546,
          37.202767,
          36.592323
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 39.439999,
        "volume": 40021,
        "typical_volume": 27006.05,
        "trend": 35.962402,
        "fair_value": 28.289838,
        "relative_strength": 0.165012,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 89.67368,
        "energy": 96.171457,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.929333,
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          36.830443
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}