{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "93ed40b8-db90-4953-8aa9-4e6bd78caddd",
    "symbol": "ROE",
    "name": "Goshawk Global Balanced UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 76.89,
    "architecture_energy": 57.704,
    "architecture_maturity": 46.455,
    "architecture_confidence": 72.695,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 11.69,
        "rotation_up": 56.03,
        "upward_expansion": 82.18,
        "deceleration": 62.98,
        "rotation_down": 25.92,
        "downward_expansion": 8.85
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        10.14809,
        10.044927
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 10.344,
    "trend_reference": 9.933833,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.04129,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 9.045449,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.143559,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -8.524647,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.061685,
    "excess_performance": -0.109206,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.04129,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.024702,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.143559,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.001648,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.085246,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.026209,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.061685,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 31.47199,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 22468,
      "relative_activity": 5.880213,
      "balance": 31.47199,
      "dry_up": 1.509899,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.012583,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.077449,
      "from_high_reference": -0.00193,
      "from_low_reference": 0.155625
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    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 9.933833,
      "fair_value_reference": 9.045449,
      "structural_low": 9.316,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
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    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 24,
        "median_return": 0.006277,
        "positive_rate": 0.625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.625,
        "median_excess_return": -0.021492,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.056143,
        "worst_return": -0.072878,
        "sufficient": true
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        "sufficient": true
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        "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "relative_strength": -5.90371,
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        "activity_lines": [
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "energy": 85.857529,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 9931.3,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": -5.197243,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "energy": 66.929357,
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "fair_value": 8.9405,
        "relative_strength": -7.599832,
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.926143,
        "energy": 52.138645,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 9451.75,
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        "fair_value": 8.957891,
        "relative_strength": -8.963221,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.8154,
        "energy": 56.760462,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 10.25,
        "volume": 858,
        "typical_volume": 9185.3,
        "trend": 9.8414,
        "fair_value": 8.974731,
        "relative_strength": -8.361352,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.620442,
        "energy": 60.702403,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.1916,
          10.170836,
          10.038443,
          9.952776
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 10.136,
        "volume": 321,
        "typical_volume": 4121.5,
        "trend": 9.865233,
        "fair_value": 8.991083,
        "relative_strength": -7.868517,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.744988,
        "energy": 51.915207,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.184133,
          10.168109,
          10.058938,
          9.971783
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 10.256,
        "volume": 72,
        "typical_volume": 4079.2,
        "trend": 9.893067,
        "fair_value": 9.008205,
        "relative_strength": -6.418149,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.567631,
        "energy": 55.484924,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.213333,
          10.186,
          10.089729,
          9.996994
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 10.208,
        "volume": 216,
        "typical_volume": 3999.85,
        "trend": 9.915967,
        "fair_value": 9.025776,
        "relative_strength": -7.253612,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.605518,
        "energy": 48.999108,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.2148,
          10.191455,
          10.113614,
          10.017312
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 10.344,
        "volume": 22468,
        "typical_volume": 3820.95,
        "trend": 9.933833,
        "fair_value": 9.045449,
        "relative_strength": -8.524647,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.889527,
        "energy": 57.70388,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.256133,
          10.221418,
          10.14809,
          10.044927
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}