{ "ticker": { "uuid": "93eea338-5724-48ee-bc14-2bd8ef824aa0", "symbol": "566", "name": "SHS Holdings Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 60.046, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 24.205, "architecture_energy": 22.84, "architecture_maturity": 10.805, "architecture_confidence": 54.468, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.78, "rotation_up": 51.51, "upward_expansion": 43.73, "deceleration": 26.06, "rotation_down": 19.97, "downward_expansion": 16.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.120933, 0.120055, 0.118352, 0.11852 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.124, "trend_reference": 0.1198, "distance_from_trend": 0.035058, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.122119, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.015404, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.650712, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.016393, "excess_performance": -0.138442, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035058, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031528, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.015404, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092243, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.156507, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00987, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.016393, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.099546, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1114000, "relative_activity": 10.027905, "balance": 5.099546, "dry_up": 3.366415, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055831, "annualized_volatility": 0.242056, "from_high_reference": -0.225, "from_low_reference": 0.148148 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.1198, "fair_value_reference": 0.122119, "structural_low": 0.108, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.019151, "regime_survival": 0.590909, "best_return": 0.041669, "worst_return": -0.027783, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.01533, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.090164, "worst_return": -0.016393, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.004, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.090281, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.052499, "worst_return": -0.111112, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-23.11434, "energy": 15.556651, "activity_lines": [ 0.118333, 0.117182, 0.117029, 0.118968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.119, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 62265.0, "trend": 0.1218, "fair_value": 0.122585, "relative_strength": -14.56848, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.207785, "energy": 16.217807, "activity_lines": [ 0.118933, 0.117636, 0.11709, 0.118757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.118, "volume": 91200, "typical_volume": 66825.0, "trend": 0.1213, "fair_value": 0.122487, "relative_strength": -18.296674, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.624216, "energy": 12.177263, "activity_lines": [ 0.1188, 0.117818, 0.117071, 0.118512 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.12, "volume": 290800, "typical_volume": 80015.0, "trend": 0.120967, "fair_value": 0.122403, "relative_strength": -17.03048, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.101585, "energy": 5.62033, "activity_lines": [ 0.119, 0.118345, 0.117262, 0.118428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.12, "volume": 50100, "typical_volume": 67470.0, "trend": 0.120533, "fair_value": 0.122318, "relative_strength": -17.728203, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.6964, "energy": 7.09458, "activity_lines": [ 0.1192, 0.118764, 0.117495, 0.118366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.119, "volume": 41000, "typical_volume": 69520.0, "trend": 0.120067, "fair_value": 0.122227, "relative_strength": -18.458196, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.19936, "energy": 8.143779, "activity_lines": [ 0.119333, 0.119, 0.117667, 0.118267 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.124, "volume": 1114000, "typical_volume": 111090.0, "trend": 0.1198, "fair_value": 0.122119, "relative_strength": -15.650712, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.205335, "energy": 22.840073, "activity_lines": [ 0.120933, 0.120055, 0.118352, 0.11852 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }