{ "ticker": { "uuid": "93f0c58d-0de1-4552-b7be-cb4077759dd8", "symbol": "FXNC", "name": "First National Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.606, "architecture_energy": 48.494, "architecture_maturity": 44.593, "architecture_confidence": 85.546, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.38, "rotation_up": 61.49, "upward_expansion": 79.7, "deceleration": 55.15, "rotation_down": 16.48, "downward_expansion": 6.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.893333, 30.425091, 29.540928, 28.884219 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 31.78, "trend_reference": 28.064121, "distance_from_trend": 0.132407, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.961785, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.516092, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.081727, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.125144, "excess_performance": -0.06231, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.132407, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073221, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.516092, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107625, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.070817, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08937, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125144, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.872668, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 169774, "relative_activity": 0.496044, "balance": 2.872668, "dry_up": 0.527161, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064067, "annualized_volatility": 0.232636, "from_high_reference": -0.043923, "from_low_reference": 0.539282 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.064121, "fair_value_reference": 20.961785, "structural_low": 24.01323, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.002339, "positive_rate": 0.59375, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.000975, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.170495, "worst_return": -0.148901, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.008166, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.004789, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.337617, "worst_return": -0.137066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.058111, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.017836, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.235653, "worst_return": -0.211439, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.796836, "energy": 37.800116, "activity_lines": [ 29.668667, 29.46755, 28.743036, 28.212714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.75, "volume": 175817, "typical_volume": 363660.65, "trend": 27.591133, "fair_value": 20.752295, "relative_strength": 6.749816, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.737948, "energy": 31.654535, "activity_lines": [ 29.673333, 29.607834, 28.901554, 28.361816 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.75, "volume": 154658, "typical_volume": 351944.05, "trend": 27.841612, "fair_value": 20.85831, "relative_strength": 12.836331, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.407056, "energy": 42.240232, "activity_lines": [ 30.318667, 30.051, 29.233548, 28.63013 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.78, "volume": 169774, "typical_volume": 342255.75, "trend": 28.064121, "fair_value": 20.961785, "relative_strength": 7.081727, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.606155, "energy": 48.494383, "activity_lines": [ 30.893333, 30.425091, 29.540928, 28.884219 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }