{ "ticker": { "uuid": "93f44197-da2b-4525-bf2f-aea0184ab601", "symbol": "G50", "name": "Grand Banks Yachts Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 51.135, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 38.485, "architecture_energy": 66.355, "architecture_maturity": 9.603, "architecture_confidence": 51.948, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.28, "rotation_up": 71.97, "upward_expansion": 65.19, "deceleration": 21.49, "rotation_down": 17.19, "downward_expansion": 23.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.745667, 0.734364, 0.716619, 0.709512 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.73, "trend_reference": 0.715656, "distance_from_trend": 0.020044, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.521728, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.399196, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.025293, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.092089, "excess_performance": -0.246925, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020044, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028357, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.399196, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02085, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140253, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098576, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.092089, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.790597, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41000, "relative_activity": 0.378072, "balance": 1.790597, "dry_up": 0.615058, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031085, "annualized_volatility": 0.310731, "from_high_reference": -0.159534, "from_low_reference": 0.504717 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.715656, "fair_value_reference": 0.521728, "structural_low": 0.62, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.054498, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.048516, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.240742, "worst_return": -0.015385, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.183574, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.155162, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.462964, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.229688, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.189045, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.491097, "worst_return": 0.03226, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.469484, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.433634, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.469484, "worst_return": 0.469484, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.231882, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.141177, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.199628, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027523, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027522, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.091837, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.155556, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067961, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.231481, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.201779, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014869, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021127, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.291571, "volume": 5100, "typical_volume": 148330.0, "trend": 0.283522, "fair_value": 0.255078, "relative_strength": 7.450349, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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0.720667, 0.713364, 0.699428, 0.702832 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.77, "volume": 168200, "typical_volume": 113775.0, "trend": 0.71893, "fair_value": 0.515973, "relative_strength": -7.38294, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 62.856402, "energy": 75.311255, "activity_lines": [ 0.739333, 0.724909, 0.707167, 0.706075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.76, "volume": 30200, "typical_volume": 111385.0, "trend": 0.717793, "fair_value": 0.518976, "relative_strength": -9.3687, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.79704, "energy": 73.653221, "activity_lines": [ 0.749333, 0.732909, 0.713548, 0.708724 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.73, "volume": 41000, "typical_volume": 108445.0, "trend": 0.715656, "fair_value": 0.521728, "relative_strength": -14.025293, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.485483, "energy": 66.355358, "activity_lines": [ 0.745667, 0.734364, 0.716619, 0.709512 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }