{ "ticker": { "uuid": "93f65b05-0956-4163-b59e-7851c601d84d", "symbol": "R1GR", "name": "iShares Russell 1000 Growth UCITS ETF", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 78.211, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.678, "architecture_energy": 20.569, "architecture_maturity": 60.798, "architecture_confidence": 77.102, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.49, "rotation_up": 27.38, "upward_expansion": 50.14, "deceleration": 81.94, "rotation_down": 35.3, "downward_expansion": 28.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.914333, 45.083091, 45.350015, 44.679206 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 46.244999, "trend_reference": 43.95949, "distance_from_trend": 0.051991, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.498222, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.267048, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.816925, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.090787, "excess_performance": -0.025876, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051991, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009909, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.267048, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048177, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058169, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088587, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.090787, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.011829, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22602, "relative_activity": 1.003091, "balance": 1.011829, "dry_up": 1.645878, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032003, "annualized_volatility": 0.198099, "from_high_reference": -0.035256, "from_low_reference": 0.197799 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.95949, "fair_value_reference": 36.498222, "structural_low": 38.608299, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.044359, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.059131, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.044359, "worst_return": -0.044359, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093861, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068356, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.17202, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019354, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": 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[ 45.275667, 45.671091, 45.248953, 44.525179 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.255001, "volume": 39425, "typical_volume": 20698.5, "trend": 43.911436, "fair_value": 36.249743, "relative_strength": -8.529711, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.749384, "energy": 17.482704, "activity_lines": [ 44.906667, 45.341273, 45.250887, 44.546236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.625, "volume": 64903, "typical_volume": 23069.6, "trend": 43.897536, "fair_value": 36.363485, "relative_strength": -10.353181, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.681318, "energy": 15.246628, "activity_lines": [ 44.445334, 44.943091, 45.181763, 44.527756 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.244999, "volume": 22602, "typical_volume": 22532.35, "trend": 43.95949, "fair_value": 36.498222, "relative_strength": -5.816925, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.678342, "energy": 20.568868, "activity_lines": [ 44.914333, 45.083091, 45.350015, 44.679206 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }