{ "ticker": { "uuid": "93fcf7bf-db40-4ded-80dd-9e545453500b", "symbol": "G24", "name": "Scout24 SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 65.036, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 20.032, "architecture_energy": 10.695, "architecture_maturity": 22.582, "architecture_confidence": 46.668, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.81, "rotation_up": 32.21, "upward_expansion": 33.25, "deceleration": 63.72, "rotation_down": 31.43, "downward_expansion": 18.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.166667, 73.071183, 72.279117, 71.662962 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 74.25, "trend_reference": 72.335542, "distance_from_trend": 0.026466, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 80.826881, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.08137, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.621773, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.001345, "excess_performance": -0.175592, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026466, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060971, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.08137, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048963, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.286218, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106968, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001345, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.632938, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13, "relative_activity": 0.01207, "balance": 2.632938, "dry_up": 0.030871, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06976, "annualized_volatility": 0.341587, "from_high_reference": -0.372358, "from_low_reference": 0.182325 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.335542, "fair_value_reference": 80.826881, "structural_low": 62.799999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.011458, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.002256, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.078522, "worst_return": -0.106796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.010547, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.107333, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.140823, "worst_return": -0.084078, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.056351, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.121972, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.188884, "worst_return": -0.076181, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.020145, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03236, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070558, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.061656, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.14697, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": 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4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.67955, "energy": 8.460917, "activity_lines": [ 72.6, 72.840354, 71.910385, 71.564395 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.25, "volume": 13, "typical_volume": 1077.05, "trend": 72.335542, "fair_value": 80.826881, "relative_strength": -28.621773, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.031677, "energy": 10.694938, "activity_lines": [ 73.166667, 73.071183, 72.279117, 71.662962 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }