{ "ticker": { "uuid": "93fd11d2-5eab-4291-9a3e-c69bd1eeabe2", "symbol": "RS", "name": "RS Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.237, "architecture_energy": 63.123, "architecture_maturity": 39.736, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.06, "rotation_up": 19.51, "upward_expansion": 12.43, "deceleration": 42.95, "rotation_down": 66.69, "downward_expansion": 90.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.120667, 0.125273, 0.138429, 0.147785 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.12, "trend_reference": 0.157667, "distance_from_trend": -0.238901, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.180783, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.962273, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -46.586, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.294118, "excess_performance": -0.486443, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.238901, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124074, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.962273, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007691, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.46586, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108658, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.294118, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.005604, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6077300, "relative_activity": 0.257956, "balance": 0.005604, "dry_up": 0.451421, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.147436, "annualized_volatility": 0.705847, "from_high_reference": -0.657143, "from_low_reference": 0.090909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.157667, "fair_value_reference": 3.180783, "structural_low": 0.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.018987, "positive_rate": 0.348837, "directional_follow_through": 0.534884, "median_excess_return": -0.030641, "regime_survival": 0.837209, "best_return": 0.177143, "worst_return": -0.801852, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.027943, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.040641, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.380952, "worst_return": -0.885455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.093708, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.098428, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.022222, "worst_return": -0.950427, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"energy": 66.674367, "activity_lines": [ 0.135333, 0.141091, 0.156095, 0.161634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.13, "volume": 8096400, "typical_volume": 25675035.0, "trend": 0.167333, "fair_value": 3.3534, "relative_strength": -46.423813, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.515324, "energy": 64.238529, "activity_lines": [ 0.133333, 0.137636, 0.152905, 0.159075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.12, "volume": 28146400, "typical_volume": 26244675.0, "trend": 0.165, "fair_value": 3.310246, "relative_strength": -50.269446, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.666077, "energy": 69.485997, "activity_lines": [ 0.128667, 0.133273, 0.149, 0.156022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.12, "volume": 6149600, "typical_volume": 25508985.0, "trend": 0.162667, "fair_value": 3.267706, "relative_strength": -49.537751, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.545583, "energy": 71.647923, "activity_lines": [ 0.124667, 0.129818, 0.145333, 0.153118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.12, "volume": 2167600, "typical_volume": 24736375.0, "trend": 0.16, "fair_value": 3.223937, "relative_strength": -48.17617, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.709218, "energy": 67.234691, "activity_lines": [ 0.122, 0.127273, 0.141762, 0.150366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.12, "volume": 6077300, "typical_volume": 23559430.0, "trend": 0.157667, "fair_value": 3.180783, "relative_strength": -46.586, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.236895, "energy": 63.122925, "activity_lines": [ 0.120667, 0.125273, 0.138429, 0.147785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }