{ "ticker": { "uuid": "940244bb-6620-47cf-bb34-81f5fc205687", "symbol": "OXM", "name": "Oxford Industries Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.307, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -6.216, "architecture_energy": 7.68, "architecture_maturity": 24.712, "architecture_confidence": 59.147, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.81, "rotation_up": 35.43, "upward_expansion": 20.48, "deceleration": 48.14, "rotation_down": 26.27, "downward_expansion": 31.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.97097, 37.401715, 38.900207, 39.024523 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 36.99, "trend_reference": 38.988078, "distance_from_trend": -0.051248, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 62.835675, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.411322, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.418132, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.061299, "excess_performance": -0.186924, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.051248, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022372, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.411322, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089263, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144181, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163128, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.061299, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.378955, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1315889, "relative_activity": 0.665167, "balance": 0.378955, "dry_up": 0.905455, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.145196, "annualized_volatility": 0.519423, "from_high_reference": -0.253933, "from_low_reference": 0.249912 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.988078, "fair_value_reference": 62.835675, "structural_low": 30.93757, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.024744, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.009213, "regime_survival": 0.52381, "best_return": 0.332651, "worst_return": -0.260315, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.007236, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.012158, "regime_survival": 0.181818, "best_return": 0.225139, "worst_return": -0.281646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.031895, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.049709, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.074411, "worst_return": 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"active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.124939, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097943, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.215766, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1964, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.089018, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", 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38.135031, 37.653497, 39.144063, 39.148884 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.99, "volume": 1315889, "typical_volume": 1978284.75, "trend": 38.988078, "fair_value": 62.835675, "relative_strength": -14.418132, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.21606, "energy": 7.679574, "activity_lines": [ 37.97097, 37.401715, 38.900207, 39.024523 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }