{ "ticker": { "uuid": "940379b0-5b43-4469-bd11-3db3d90188d8", "symbol": "GGZ", "name": "Gabelli Global Small and Mid Cap Value Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.638, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.924, "architecture_energy": 44.178, "architecture_maturity": 22.264, "architecture_confidence": 66.707, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.94, "rotation_up": 54.57, "upward_expansion": 75.76, "deceleration": 63.81, "rotation_down": 19.51, "downward_expansion": 4.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.22892, 16.14452, 15.939727, 15.798984 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.64, "trend_reference": 15.655015, "distance_from_trend": 0.062918, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.115283, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.373472, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.052789, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.064238, "excess_performance": -0.061387, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062918, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046024, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.373472, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014366, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000528, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004821, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.064238, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.185325, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46449, "relative_activity": 1.228954, "balance": 1.185325, "dry_up": 0.98165, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029615, "annualized_volatility": 0.16545, "from_high_reference": -0.011876, "from_low_reference": 0.299142 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.655015, "fair_value_reference": 12.115283, "structural_low": 14.430364, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.007868, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.00662, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.107024, "worst_return": -0.128636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.013308, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.023168, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.120623, "worst_return": -0.070287, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.038454, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.039014, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.137821, "worst_return": 0.027274, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.409239, "energy": 43.141571, "activity_lines": [ 16.020013, 15.953217, 15.794953, 15.692584 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.1501, "volume": 23782, "typical_volume": 37686.15, "trend": 15.596871, "fair_value": 12.074299, "relative_strength": 0.486128, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.435903, "energy": 33.753369, "activity_lines": [ 16.044487, 16.012429, 15.846744, 15.731686 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.64, "volume": 46449, "typical_volume": 37795.55, "trend": 15.655015, "fair_value": 12.115283, "relative_strength": -0.052789, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.923736, "energy": 44.177692, "activity_lines": [ 16.22892, 16.14452, 15.939727, 15.798984 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }