{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9403dd1c-db4a-40ed-b7c1-d1c4b289ff00", "symbol": "ABR", "name": "Arbor Realty Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.571, "architecture_energy": 51.499, "architecture_maturity": 65.897, "architecture_confidence": 95.755, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.83, "rotation_up": 28.73, "upward_expansion": 9.0, "deceleration": 55.22, "rotation_down": 51.3, "downward_expansion": 84.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.144667, 5.168909, 5.544747, 5.976992 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.35, "trend_reference": 6.487836, "distance_from_trend": -0.17538, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.528895, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.43855, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.917403, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.266224, "excess_performance": -0.391849, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.17538, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123327, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.43855, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142615, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.389174, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095683, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.266224, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.563134, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24792828, "relative_activity": 1.280361, "balance": 0.563134, "dry_up": 1.043825, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094286, "annualized_volatility": 0.447446, "from_high_reference": -0.529321, "from_low_reference": 0.131078 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.487836, "fair_value_reference": 9.528895, "structural_low": 4.73, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.034071, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.002659, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.202609, "worst_return": -0.10404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.014801, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.011379, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.586548, "worst_return": -0.299998, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.058916, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.024583, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.164874, "worst_return": -0.371626, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 5.05, "volume": 19787750, "typical_volume": 20011865.6, "trend": 6.799324, "fair_value": 9.694704, "relative_strength": -44.526084, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.215251, "energy": 60.259335, "activity_lines": [ 5.209333, 5.326973, 6.001351, 6.376708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.18, "volume": 16244972, "typical_volume": 19414244.15, "trend": 6.723658, "fair_value": 9.654979, "relative_strength": -41.369139, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.644779, "energy": 55.477839, "activity_lines": [ 5.194, 5.263064, 5.873395, 6.272235 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.99, "volume": 14866099, "typical_volume": 18620531.65, "trend": 6.64166, "fair_value": 9.609273, "relative_strength": -42.238987, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.569057, "energy": 57.763388, "activity_lines": [ 5.117333, 5.197636, 5.737974, 6.160386 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.01, "volume": 24946404, "typical_volume": 19011754.3, "trend": 6.56095, "fair_value": 9.567707, "relative_strength": -41.74108, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.873009, "energy": 55.097603, "activity_lines": [ 5.061333, 5.147273, 5.619377, 6.055118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.35, "volume": 24792828, "typical_volume": 19363941.8, "trend": 6.487836, "fair_value": 9.528895, "relative_strength": -38.917403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.570862, "energy": 51.499488, "activity_lines": [ 5.144667, 5.168909, 5.544747, 5.976992 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }