{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9408cad8-62a9-4054-bea5-f7cda7f457fe", "symbol": "FCT", "name": "First Trust Senior Floting Rate Income Fund II", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.707, "architecture_energy": 61.072, "architecture_maturity": 9.169, "architecture_confidence": 73.548, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.09, "rotation_up": 68.98, "upward_expansion": 90.59, "deceleration": 41.08, "rotation_down": 14.49, "downward_expansion": 12.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.647333, 9.620204, 9.581488, 9.550827 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 9.67, "trend_reference": 9.530761, "distance_from_trend": 0.014609, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.591603, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.125518, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.00892, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.019712, "excess_performance": -0.105913, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014609, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01414, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.125518, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021042, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.080089, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006436, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.019712, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.261398, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1549477, "relative_activity": 2.723744, "balance": 1.261398, "dry_up": 1.869581, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010174, "annualized_volatility": 0.053168, "from_high_reference": -0.003093, "from_low_reference": 0.100358 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.530761, "fair_value_reference": 8.591603, "structural_low": 9.218104, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.004858, "positive_rate": 0.567568, "directional_follow_through": 0.567568, "median_excess_return": -0.008267, "regime_survival": 0.72973, "best_return": 0.036501, "worst_return": -0.101348, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.013448, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.036484, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.076616, "worst_return": -0.195713, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.043846, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.044574, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.103509, "worst_return": -0.186319, 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9.530761, "fair_value": 8.591603, "relative_strength": -8.00892, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.706631, "energy": 61.072164, "activity_lines": [ 9.647333, 9.620204, 9.581488, 9.550827 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }