{ "ticker": { "uuid": "940eb75e-08f0-469b-af99-80ffa396aed5", "symbol": "600997", "name": "Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.581, "architecture_energy": 19.991, "architecture_maturity": 88.506, "architecture_confidence": 71.58, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.38, "rotation_up": 33.24, "upward_expansion": 20.55, "deceleration": 44.1, "rotation_down": 22.61, "downward_expansion": 54.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.392667, 5.273091, 5.358803, 5.541727 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5.41, "trend_reference": 5.754567, "distance_from_trend": -0.059877, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.324998, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.144664, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.100971, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.143539, "excess_performance": -0.100335, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.059877, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047628, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.144664, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04033, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10101, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061812, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.143539, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.552361, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76891041, "relative_activity": 1.342599, "balance": 0.552361, "dry_up": 1.197229, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084147, "annualized_volatility": 0.402271, "from_high_reference": -0.279846, "from_low_reference": 0.151064 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.754567, "fair_value_reference": 6.324998, "structural_low": 4.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.025042, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": 0.01373, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.233487, "worst_return": -0.095651, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.04864, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.004973, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.155899, "worst_return": -0.030391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.067251, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.010016, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.283388, "worst_return": -0.056034, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"direction": -61.508933, "energy": 61.371894, "activity_lines": [ 5.072, 5.174541, 5.410363, 5.607046 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.21, "volume": 66045928, "typical_volume": 66697508.35, "trend": 5.76948, "fair_value": 6.326313, "relative_strength": -11.246443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.823831, "energy": 39.505083, "activity_lines": [ 5.135333, 5.165273, 5.365768, 5.569771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.69, "volume": 63107415, "typical_volume": 59411187.25, "trend": 5.765196, "fair_value": 6.326495, "relative_strength": -3.189512, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.597841, "energy": 17.66051, "activity_lines": [ 5.342, 5.248364, 5.37287, 5.564643 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.41, "volume": 76891041, "typical_volume": 57270280.15, "trend": 5.754567, "fair_value": 6.324998, "relative_strength": -10.100971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.581417, "energy": 19.990685, "activity_lines": [ 5.392667, 5.273091, 5.358803, 5.541727 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }