{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94139159-4859-4d66-b496-46fd483a2dc0", "symbol": "2002", "name": "China Steel Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 88.02, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -0.51, "architecture_energy": 10.107, "architecture_maturity": 23.07, "architecture_confidence": 62.092, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.87, "rotation_up": 36.69, "upward_expansion": 37.23, "deceleration": 28.59, "rotation_down": 21.33, "downward_expansion": 43.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.163334, 18.993456, 18.881147, 18.977297 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.450001, "trend_reference": 19.193299, "distance_from_trend": 0.013375, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.180479, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.081702, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.79998, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.062012, "excess_performance": -0.407744, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013375, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007914, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.081702, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09493, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.258, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118757, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.062012, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.594336, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 167565413, "relative_activity": 0.655251, "balance": 1.594336, "dry_up": 0.822203, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046605, "annualized_volatility": 0.170729, "from_high_reference": -0.092409, "from_low_reference": 0.113861 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.193299, "fair_value_reference": 21.180479, "structural_low": 17.908245, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.019237, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.028166, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.141159, "worst_return": -0.121693, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.067937, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.150753, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.108911, "worst_return": -0.10643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.045995, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.039775, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.059625, "worst_return": -0.117757, 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"typical_volume": 252786977.0, "trend": 19.176619, "fair_value": 21.278679, "relative_strength": -27.564573, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.486665, "energy": 9.365517, "activity_lines": [ 18.927426, 18.856569, 18.819105, 18.971375 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 19.0, "volume": 333369990, "typical_volume": 257305211.1, "trend": 19.181593, "fair_value": 21.226135, "relative_strength": -29.39546, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.008968, "energy": 11.38394, "activity_lines": [ 18.990236, 18.882754, 18.827635, 18.959981 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 19.450001, "volume": 167565413, "typical_volume": 255727150.1, "trend": 19.193299, "fair_value": 21.180479, "relative_strength": -25.79998, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.510414, "energy": 10.10704, "activity_lines": [ 19.163334, 18.993456, 18.881147, 18.977297 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }