{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9418ce49-6d4a-41a9-846e-0708ed8588ca", "symbol": "3543", "name": "Jochu Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.585, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 22.327, "architecture_energy": 38.119, "architecture_maturity": 92.523, "architecture_confidence": 48.371, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.93, "rotation_up": 53.04, "upward_expansion": 36.08, "deceleration": 47.3, "rotation_down": 19.34, "downward_expansion": 49.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.779999, 35.223636, 34.395747, 36.409962 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 44.0, "trend_reference": 39.319356, "distance_from_trend": 0.119042, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.688619, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.589101, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.633172, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.009035, "excess_performance": -0.336697, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.119042, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081267, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.589101, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.224247, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.196332, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149066, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.009035, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.755587, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14408998, "relative_activity": 2.469717, "balance": 2.755587, "dry_up": 2.139881, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091921, "annualized_volatility": 0.626863, "from_high_reference": -0.237217, "from_low_reference": 0.68906 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.319356, "fair_value_reference": 27.688619, "structural_low": 26.049999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.004914, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": 0.020262, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.380379, "worst_return": -0.148837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.005, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.057698, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.304455, "worst_return": -0.126415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.050668, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002212, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.767717, "worst_return": -0.201796, "sufficient": true 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40.049746, "fair_value": 27.217847, "relative_strength": -50.629099, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.072596, "energy": 67.737184, "activity_lines": [ 29.263334, 30.231801, 33.665328, 36.755007 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.049999, "volume": 10659278, "typical_volume": 5614540.3, "trend": 39.676624, "fair_value": 27.301377, "relative_strength": -38.552926, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.715449, "energy": 49.762632, "activity_lines": [ 30.47, 30.516289, 33.244177, 36.30341 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.0, "volume": 14423873, "typical_volume": 5299793.65, "trend": 39.481951, "fair_value": 27.402641, "relative_strength": -33.873601, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.101848, "energy": 34.55851, "activity_lines": [ 32.353333, 31.396185, 33.187179, 36.066208 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 40.099998, "volume": 10446439, "typical_volume": 5353700.8, "trend": 39.289873, "fair_value": 27.531952, "relative_strength": -28.214866, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.623121, "energy": 17.499297, "activity_lines": [ 35.139999, 33.008216, 33.587007, 36.106082 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 44.0, "volume": 14408998, "typical_volume": 5834270.65, "trend": 39.319356, "fair_value": 27.688619, "relative_strength": -19.633172, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 22.326659, "energy": 38.11912, "activity_lines": [ 38.779999, 35.223636, 34.395747, 36.409962 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }