{ "ticker": { "uuid": "941ad3df-8fc8-4122-ac82-f319c0dbb8c0", "symbol": "TRNS", "name": "Transcat Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.748, "architecture_energy": 25.713, "architecture_maturity": 43.16, "architecture_confidence": 92.176, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.23, "rotation_up": 33.12, "upward_expansion": 59.05, "deceleration": 89.24, "rotation_down": 23.92, "downward_expansion": 13.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 88.386, 88.853455, 86.020762, 83.176634 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 93.11, "trend_reference": 79.0245, "distance_from_trend": 0.178242, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 92.785705, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.003495, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.98701, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.219835, "excess_performance": 0.032381, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.178242, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.156812, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.003495, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.182352, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.09987, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.242429, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.219835, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.134244, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 979726, "relative_activity": 1.325115, "balance": 1.134244, "dry_up": 0.914093, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103321, "annualized_volatility": 0.36679, "from_high_reference": -0.036128, "from_low_reference": 0.853673 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 79.0245, "fair_value_reference": 92.785705, "structural_low": 65.9, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.028733, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.024231, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.160047, "worst_return": -0.146549, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.044982, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.045158, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.414168, "worst_return": -0.321069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.125427, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.024057, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.276622, "worst_return": -0.114727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029969, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.154282, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.116999, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.156558, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05171, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", 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81.629929, 78.376978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 89.03, "volume": 737298, "typical_volume": 749804.0, "trend": 74.274333, "fair_value": 92.764167, "relative_strength": 4.989585, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.301278, "energy": 65.077915, "activity_lines": [ 90.863333, 87.159091, 82.589143, 79.404634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 88.41, "volume": 712502, "typical_volume": 755174.45, "trend": 75.348, "fair_value": 92.790897, "relative_strength": 2.985061, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.95874, "energy": 45.704272, "activity_lines": [ 90.125333, 88.059273, 83.426143, 80.316613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 87.9, "volume": 631281, "typical_volume": 743808.2, "trend": 76.293, "fair_value": 92.81859, "relative_strength": 7.165261, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.446207, "energy": 36.419342, "activity_lines": [ 89.171333, 88.577636, 84.166429, 81.126419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 84.85, "volume": 424301, "typical_volume": 741726.7, "trend": 77.159167, "fair_value": 92.825962, "relative_strength": 5.557192, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.843524, "energy": 24.445648, "activity_lines": [ 87.424667, 88.329636, 84.568952, 81.678484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 85.37, "volume": 668038, "typical_volume": 736047.65, "trend": 78.0995, "fair_value": 92.796987, "relative_strength": 5.814305, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.540509, "energy": 19.302898, "activity_lines": [ 86.386667, 88.000182, 84.953476, 82.208215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 93.11, "volume": 979726, "typical_volume": 739351.65, "trend": 79.0245, "fair_value": 92.785705, "relative_strength": 9.98701, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.74838, "energy": 25.712584, "activity_lines": [ 88.386, 88.853455, 86.020762, 83.176634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }