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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 69.446, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.997, "architecture_energy": 78.941, "architecture_maturity": 20.145, "architecture_confidence": 60.287, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.03, "rotation_up": 81.37, "upward_expansion": 94.67, "deceleration": 39.27, "rotation_down": 9.81, "downward_expansion": 16.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 86.679999, 83.882859, 81.127881, 79.238066 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 90.599998, "trend_reference": 76.98785, "distance_from_trend": 0.176809, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 70.141106, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.291682, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.512176, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.272071, "excess_performance": -0.169302, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.176809, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021816, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.291682, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.231031, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.165122, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.245813, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.272071, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.454235, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 78302021, "relative_activity": 1.652984, "balance": 1.454235, "dry_up": 1.26493, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061559, "annualized_volatility": 0.315217, "from_high_reference": -0.008753, "from_low_reference": 0.287754 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 76.98785, "fair_value_reference": 70.141106, "structural_low": 70.836957, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.005082, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009013, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.25499, "worst_return": -0.248252, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.016667, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.00785, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.080951, "worst_return": -0.377524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.036005, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.073505, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.272666, "worst_return": -0.329195, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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22.01358, "activity_lines": [ 78.921934, 79.126944, 77.435569, 76.471406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 87.0, "volume": 85329141, "typical_volume": 52934191.9, "trend": 75.979686, "fair_value": 69.375525, "relative_strength": -19.27575, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.51834, "energy": 61.897152, "activity_lines": [ 81.848068, 80.621582, 78.449372, 77.207826 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 84.699997, "volume": 49106130, "typical_volume": 48215912.05, "trend": 76.239396, "fair_value": 69.620804, "relative_strength": -19.294092, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.01431, "energy": 63.707879, "activity_lines": [ 83.373333, 81.416429, 79.190566, 77.770427 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 84.900002, "volume": 26942142, "typical_volume": 45275929.75, "trend": 76.512198, "fair_value": 69.862101, "relative_strength": -19.995411, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.540336, "energy": 65.543761, "activity_lines": [ 84.246667, 82.184836, 79.908658, 78.329176 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 90.599998, "volume": 78302021, "typical_volume": 47370105.65, "trend": 76.98785, "fair_value": 70.141106, "relative_strength": -16.512176, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.996667, "energy": 78.941385, "activity_lines": [ 86.679999, 83.882859, 81.127881, 79.238066 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }