{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9422c6ce-68bb-4ce4-a6cd-5a94259d6cad", "symbol": "APEX", "name": "Apex Frozen Foods Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.512, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.733, "architecture_energy": 52.38, "architecture_maturity": 5.95, "architecture_confidence": 59.975, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.33, "rotation_up": 15.51, "upward_expansion": 26.42, "deceleration": 49.9, "rotation_down": 69.71, "downward_expansion": 58.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 380.023332, 390.090908, 410.18095, 408.974621 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 376.75, "trend_reference": 396.319997, "distance_from_trend": -0.049379, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 265.192815, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.420664, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 12.238855, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.086048, "excess_performance": 0.129757, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049379, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109808, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.420664, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.563293, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.122389, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.616579, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086048, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.222462, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 291867, "relative_activity": 0.133786, "balance": 0.222462, "dry_up": 0.244649, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073922, "annualized_volatility": 0.540654, "from_high_reference": -0.267736, "from_low_reference": 0.819516 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 396.319997, "fair_value_reference": 265.192815, "structural_low": 316.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.000527, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006426, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.121475, "worst_return": -0.047517, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.120943, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.005623, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.146233, "worst_return": -0.185466, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.182527, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.080943, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.248126, "worst_return": -0.270155, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052842, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.184189, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.216428, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.237382, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": 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"trend": 386.428332, "fair_value": 262.080126, "relative_strength": 23.536695, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.151866, "energy": 16.326284, "activity_lines": [ 400.696667, 409.124544, 422.068331, 411.580535 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 381.0, "volume": 433729, "typical_volume": 2459118.0, "trend": 389.936665, "fair_value": 263.159593, "relative_strength": 19.348299, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -9.986665, "energy": 33.514321, "activity_lines": [ 392.880001, 402.159999, 418.737855, 411.23032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 370.649994, "volume": 267955, "typical_volume": 2379022.1, "trend": 392.426664, "fair_value": 264.141528, "relative_strength": 12.25702, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.448174, "energy": 52.48589, "activity_lines": [ 384.196665, 394.859089, 414.279997, 409.986019 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 376.75, "volume": 291867, "typical_volume": 2181591.2, "trend": 396.319997, "fair_value": 265.192815, "relative_strength": 12.238855, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.733183, "energy": 52.379634, "activity_lines": [ 380.023332, 390.090908, 410.18095, 408.974621 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }