{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9424f638-427a-479a-96ff-195b9499e299", "symbol": "002181", "name": "Guangdong Guangzhou Daily Media Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.802, "architecture_energy": 63.465, "architecture_maturity": 28.525, "architecture_confidence": 85.205, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.29, "rotation_up": 12.19, "upward_expansion": 13.03, "deceleration": 41.17, "rotation_down": 67.93, "downward_expansion": 86.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.490342, 9.064646, 11.277459, 11.689155 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.13, "trend_reference": 11.88127, "distance_from_trend": -0.231564, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.649948, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.372943, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.372044, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.255909, "excess_performance": -0.263308, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.231564, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023806, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.372943, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.620597, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14372, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.809009, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.255909, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.87002, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 363157605, "relative_activity": 1.093703, "balance": 0.87002, "dry_up": 0.706771, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.251201, "annualized_volatility": 0.896841, "from_high_reference": -0.578486, "from_low_reference": 0.345591 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.88127, "fair_value_reference": 6.649948, "structural_low": 7.064617, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.006082, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.023895, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.416256, "worst_return": -0.089059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.008858, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023115, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.293103, "worst_return": -0.103982, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.047426, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.118304, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.642857, "worst_return": -0.289823, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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-23.518694, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.636793, "energy": 65.103222, "activity_lines": [ 8.93315, 10.759762, 12.447744, 12.355001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.640915, "volume": 191105482, "typical_volume": 330596663.6, "trend": 11.863095, "fair_value": 6.597429, "relative_strength": -25.503634, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.859228, "energy": 68.300531, "activity_lines": [ 8.339326, 9.873166, 11.971298, 12.080906 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.525234, "volume": 193680477, "typical_volume": 327773861.25, "trend": 11.86427, "fair_value": 6.621657, "relative_strength": -15.737407, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.892507, "energy": 62.88742, "activity_lines": [ 8.268881, 9.36643, 11.590736, 11.86556 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.13, "volume": 363157605, "typical_volume": 332044209.55, "trend": 11.88127, "fair_value": 6.649948, "relative_strength": -14.372044, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.802221, "energy": 63.465406, "activity_lines": [ 8.490342, 9.064646, 11.277459, 11.689155 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }