{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9427ecd9-044e-43cc-ba79-0c982a540bdf", "symbol": "VMBS", "name": "VANGUARD MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES INDEX FUND ETF SHARES", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.323, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.914, "architecture_energy": 54.464, "architecture_maturity": 2.423, "architecture_confidence": 88.705, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.28, "rotation_up": 11.52, "upward_expansion": 11.8, "deceleration": 38.12, "rotation_down": 65.22, "downward_expansion": 87.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.11791, 46.254293, 46.349783, 46.412418 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 46.24, "trend_reference": 46.485725, "distance_from_trend": -0.005286, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.550152, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.061764, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.644454, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.007189, "excess_performance": -0.194643, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005286, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001384, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.061764, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020601, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.126445, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025332, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007189, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.163656, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6529377, "relative_activity": 0.951558, "balance": 1.163656, "dry_up": 0.969943, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009794, "annualized_volatility": 0.047631, "from_high_reference": -0.021281, "from_low_reference": 0.037163 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.485725, "fair_value_reference": 43.550152, "structural_low": 45.688259, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.001542, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": 0.000403, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.04804, "worst_return": -0.047653, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.009949, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.017971, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.065914, "worst_return": -0.088109, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.029249, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.034076, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.061402, "worst_return": -0.085666, "sufficient": true }, 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46.488941, 46.505096, 46.526912 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 46.271083, "volume": 7071003, "typical_volume": 7187389.9, "trend": 46.51177, "fair_value": 43.405864, "relative_strength": -14.060921, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.892092, "energy": 6.802672, "activity_lines": [ 46.481856, 46.456597, 46.478467, 46.511923 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.330865, "volume": 6511607, "typical_volume": 7063374.1, "trend": 46.515601, "fair_value": 43.441025, "relative_strength": -9.925109, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.71511, "energy": 20.032594, "activity_lines": [ 46.417654, 46.438608, 46.460763, 46.500252 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.021993, "volume": 6170723, "typical_volume": 7000183.4, "trend": 46.505533, "fair_value": 43.475061, "relative_strength": -8.807064, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.656545, "energy": 44.548005, "activity_lines": [ 46.262816, 46.369748, 46.41781, 46.468406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.892466, "volume": 7410406, "typical_volume": 6973137.75, "trend": 46.494751, "fair_value": 43.510435, "relative_strength": -9.220724, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.414197, "energy": 60.342545, "activity_lines": [ 46.101702, 46.277228, 46.365906, 46.428853 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.24, "volume": 6529377, "typical_volume": 6861771.95, "trend": 46.485725, "fair_value": 43.550152, "relative_strength": -12.644454, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.913552, "energy": 54.463528, "activity_lines": [ 46.11791, 46.254293, 46.349783, 46.412418 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }