{ "ticker": { "uuid": "942cd1e4-17a5-453c-b551-023a2e2e411f", "symbol": "SBR", "name": "Sabre Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.287, "architecture_energy": 60.44, "architecture_maturity": 78.412, "architecture_confidence": 93.231, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.58, "rotation_up": 25.44, "upward_expansion": 9.68, "deceleration": 57.75, "rotation_down": 60.34, "downward_expansion": 85.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.006467, 0.006709, 0.007324, 0.008241 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.006, "trend_reference": 0.009667, "distance_from_trend": -0.37931, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.01592, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.623113, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -46.567347, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.5, "excess_performance": -0.563706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.37931, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147059, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.623113, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127151, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.465673, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.272315, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.5, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.949318, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9180768, "relative_activity": 2.294326, "balance": 0.949318, "dry_up": 2.470581, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.166667, "annualized_volatility": 0.7748, "from_high_reference": -0.6, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.009667, "fair_value_reference": 0.01592, "structural_low": 0.005, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.048055, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.047234, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.423077, "worst_return": -0.275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.153021, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.16201, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.956522, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.159565, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.198928, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.125, "worst_return": -0.448276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.482759, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.090909, 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2442063.55, "trend": 0.010333, "fair_value": 0.016689, "relative_strength": -36.124675, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.4253, "energy": 69.382788, "activity_lines": [ 0.007067, 0.007255, 0.008148, 0.009166 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.007, "volume": 10541418, "typical_volume": 2777052.45, "trend": 0.010167, "fair_value": 0.01651, "relative_strength": -35.827109, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.337215, "energy": 70.194542, "activity_lines": [ 0.007, 0.007164, 0.007952, 0.008951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.006, "volume": 1548712, "typical_volume": 2759038.05, "trend": 0.01, "fair_value": 0.016311, "relative_strength": -44.4368, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.130393, "energy": 79.198288, "activity_lines": [ 0.006667, 0.006927, 0.007686, 0.008682 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.007, "volume": 18273321, "typical_volume": 3552415.9, "trend": 0.009833, "fair_value": 0.016106, "relative_strength": -36.164227, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.312082, "energy": 57.514171, "activity_lines": [ 0.006733, 0.006909, 0.007543, 0.008488 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.006, "volume": 9180768, "typical_volume": 4001509.65, "trend": 0.009667, "fair_value": 0.01592, "relative_strength": -46.567347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.28745, "energy": 60.440158, "activity_lines": [ 0.006467, 0.006709, 0.007324, 0.008241 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }