{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9434fda0-85c6-410d-bb00-66b0b8fd7cbe", "symbol": "IBHI", "name": "ISHARES IBONDS 2029 TERM HIGH YIELD AND INCOME ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.653, "architecture_energy": 22.051, "architecture_maturity": 13.599, "architecture_confidence": 73.447, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.1, "rotation_up": 33.6, "upward_expansion": 58.75, "deceleration": 89.8, "rotation_down": 25.42, "downward_expansion": 12.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.181193, 23.178597, 23.174552, 23.134552 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 23.275, "trend_reference": 23.098418, "distance_from_trend": 0.007645, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.282987, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.093596, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.645122, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.008365, "excess_performance": -0.11726, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007645, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004835, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.093596, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016789, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096451, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005157, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008365, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.771846, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 401874, "relative_activity": 0.634627, "balance": 0.771846, "dry_up": 0.763784, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007726, "annualized_volatility": 0.033501, "from_high_reference": -0.009574, "from_low_reference": 0.045701 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.098418, "fair_value_reference": 21.282987, "structural_low": 22.637795, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.025432, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.011395, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.033998, "worst_return": 0.016866, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.06043, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.052667, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.081987, "worst_return": 0.038873, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.082146, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.123551, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.106448, "worst_return": 0.057845, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 622142.75, "trend": 23.086234, "fair_value": 21.219871, "relative_strength": -6.755399, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.488834, "energy": 14.20216, "activity_lines": [ 23.133266, 23.164092, 23.15387, 23.118011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.160145, "volume": 457706, "typical_volume": 624522.7, "trend": 23.09252, "fair_value": 21.251008, "relative_strength": -7.215174, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.108777, "energy": 13.8554, "activity_lines": [ 23.136279, 23.161092, 23.159634, 23.122779 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.275, "volume": 401874, "typical_volume": 633244.15, "trend": 23.098418, "fair_value": 21.282987, "relative_strength": -9.645122, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.652733, "energy": 22.050654, "activity_lines": [ 23.181193, 23.178597, 23.174552, 23.134552 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }