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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.722, "architecture_energy": 55.303, "architecture_maturity": 26.766, "architecture_confidence": 69.135, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.82, "rotation_up": 64.53, "upward_expansion": 85.38, "deceleration": 46.96, "rotation_down": 15.98, "downward_expansion": 9.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.906666, 65.332728, 64.630856, 64.001954 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 67.099998, "trend_reference": 63.327281, "distance_from_trend": 0.059575, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 58.970975, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.137848, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.465398, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.082971, "excess_performance": -0.262761, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059575, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014752, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.137848, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041468, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.214654, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093571, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.082971, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.043735, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 488011, "relative_activity": 0.634329, "balance": 1.043735, "dry_up": 0.697473, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030702, "annualized_volatility": 0.108999, "from_high_reference": -0.008863, "from_low_reference": 0.154702 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.327281, "fair_value_reference": 58.970975, "structural_low": 59.893878, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.01237, "positive_rate": 0.694444, "directional_follow_through": 0.694444, "median_excess_return": -0.009768, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.069159, "worst_return": -0.041946, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.028461, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.005984, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.103501, "worst_return": -0.027726, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.074152, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.041337, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.208333, "worst_return": -0.121947, 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"Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.676695, "energy": 38.116535, "activity_lines": [ 64.713336, 64.462711, 63.764803, 63.327665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 64.5, "volume": 635500, "typical_volume": 732501.4, "trend": 62.982451, "fair_value": 58.624722, "relative_strength": -23.082958, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.281256, "energy": 33.701582, "activity_lines": [ 64.753335, 64.515141, 63.896843, 63.432852 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.199997, "volume": 521204, "typical_volume": 740754.1, "trend": 63.08422, "fair_value": 58.737475, "relative_strength": -23.49284, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.436218, "energy": 43.426971, "activity_lines": [ 64.946667, 64.667422, 64.080769, 63.57592 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 65.800003, "volume": 501646, "typical_volume": 755687.75, "trend": 63.212247, "fair_value": 58.852468, "relative_strength": -24.745737, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.144603, "energy": 46.533339, "activity_lines": [ 65.280001, 64.888647, 64.304617, 63.751132 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 67.099998, "volume": 488011, "typical_volume": 769334.3, "trend": 63.327281, "fair_value": 58.970975, "relative_strength": -21.465398, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.722248, "energy": 55.30314, "activity_lines": [ 65.906666, 65.332728, 64.630856, 64.001954 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }