{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94395524-2fd6-41af-a039-74bb2c262a02", "symbol": "TNY", "name": "Tinybeans Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.503, "architecture_energy": 15.482, "architecture_maturity": 34.307, "architecture_confidence": 93.65, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.69, "rotation_up": 30.83, "upward_expansion": 23.4, "deceleration": 30.32, "rotation_down": 34.27, "downward_expansion": 57.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.077, 0.076582, 0.077367, 0.078262 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.075, "trend_reference": 0.080267, "distance_from_trend": -0.065615, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.095852, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.217546, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.364596, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.166667, "excess_performance": -0.230372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.065615, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092732, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.217546, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122321, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.193646, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.209399, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.1216, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.1216, "dry_up": 0.007071, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087179, "annualized_volatility": 0.576532, "from_high_reference": -0.53125, "from_low_reference": 0.293103 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.080267, "fair_value_reference": 0.095852, "structural_low": 0.058, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.06173, "positive_rate": 0.358974, "directional_follow_through": 0.641026, "median_excess_return": -0.068087, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.397059, "worst_return": -0.375002, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.1125, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.143376, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.3, "worst_return": -0.441861, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.22, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.25213, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.093333, "worst_return": -0.64706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081081, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082192, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012346, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.272727, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"relative_strength": -11.437879, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.547102, "energy": 15.21946, "activity_lines": [ 0.0778, 0.076, 0.077871, 0.079034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.08, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 443403.45, "trend": 0.080633, "fair_value": 0.09691, "relative_strength": -10.300719, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.356476, "energy": 12.360937, "activity_lines": [ 0.0788, 0.076655, 0.078019, 0.078976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.075, "volume": 10000, "typical_volume": 357525.05, "trend": 0.080433, "fair_value": 0.096301, "relative_strength": -17.232895, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.639875, "energy": 17.485573, "activity_lines": [ 0.077733, 0.076636, 0.0777, 0.078613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.075, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 353571.85, "trend": 0.080267, "fair_value": 0.095852, "relative_strength": -19.364596, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.502625, "energy": 15.482208, "activity_lines": [ 0.077, 0.076582, 0.077367, 0.078262 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }