{ "ticker": { "uuid": "943aaaa4-af4f-4111-b04d-b42edcde7c9b", "symbol": "1718", "name": "China Man-Made Fiber Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.092, "architecture_energy": 29.891, "architecture_maturity": 77.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.742, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.69, "rotation_up": 25.15, "upward_expansion": 58.93, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 38.46, "downward_expansion": 22.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.415333, 11.283636, 10.241, 9.451935 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.95, "trend_reference": 8.552333, "distance_from_trend": 0.280352, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.661923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.429145, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.280699, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.57781, "excess_performance": 0.136438, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.280352, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.208981, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.429145, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.577162, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.032807, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.397497, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.57781, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.890943, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 194727346, "relative_activity": 1.571247, "balance": 2.890943, "dry_up": 1.727181, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.173305, "annualized_volatility": 0.896485, "from_high_reference": -0.267559, "from_low_reference": 0.774716 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.552333, "fair_value_reference": 7.661923, "structural_low": 6.25, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.000359, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012865, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.517766, "worst_return": -0.051559, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.025005, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.067978, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.00612, "worst_return": -0.043891, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.08273, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.124526, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.069988, "worst_return": -0.095471, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.161863, 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"start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.127005, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0317, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006163, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097523, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013235, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045181, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation 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9.752619, 8.96886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.0, "volume": 242302961, "typical_volume": 102469565.9, "trend": 8.251333, "fair_value": 7.628205, "relative_strength": 7.589471, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.043068, "energy": 70.820033, "activity_lines": [ 12.883333, 11.879091, 9.97381, 9.154645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.73, "volume": 190340382, "typical_volume": 108170524.15, "trend": 8.312667, "fair_value": 7.632821, "relative_strength": -13.064746, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.94886, "energy": 42.524262, "activity_lines": [ 11.463333, 11.522, 9.962333, 9.185527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.91, "volume": 228839196, "typical_volume": 116324545.55, "trend": 8.418, "fair_value": 7.644551, "relative_strength": -3.415149, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.161857, "energy": 25.820467, "activity_lines": [ 10.598, 11.338182, 10.057381, 9.288581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 10.95, "volume": 194727346, "typical_volume": 123931710.4, "trend": 8.552333, "fair_value": 7.661923, "relative_strength": 3.280699, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.091812, "energy": 29.891414, "activity_lines": [ 10.415333, 11.283636, 10.241, 9.451935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }