{ "ticker": { "uuid": "943b3dab-16ff-4587-aabf-8a7af2f9a99a", "symbol": "002818", "name": "Chengdu Fusen Noble-House Industrial Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.78, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.444, "architecture_energy": 28.71, "architecture_maturity": 18.396, "architecture_confidence": 80.563, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.97, "rotation_up": 20.5, "upward_expansion": 7.49, "deceleration": 54.63, "rotation_down": 44.47, "downward_expansion": 69.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.7, 10.713636, 10.875274, 10.950088 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.73, "trend_reference": 11.048668, "distance_from_trend": -0.028842, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.339978, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.05379, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.942469, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.059509, "excess_performance": -0.066909, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028842, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00344, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.05379, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089723, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069425, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100481, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.059509, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.366482, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18323251, "relative_activity": 0.983156, "balance": 0.366482, "dry_up": 1.12457, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042581, "annualized_volatility": 0.230411, "from_high_reference": -0.120307, "from_low_reference": 0.051961 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.048668, "fair_value_reference": 11.339978, "structural_low": 10.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.014867, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.008444, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.196396, "worst_return": -0.047743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.034573, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.019326, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.246296, "worst_return": -0.051827, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013934, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001778, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.211828, "worst_return": -0.080628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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}, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.5, "volume": 19615789, "typical_volume": 18010695.95, "trend": 11.049633, "fair_value": 11.35169, "relative_strength": -6.536585, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.72911, "energy": 61.445677, "activity_lines": [ 10.536, 10.724182, 10.900009, 10.979194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.92, "volume": 26530544, "typical_volume": 18450295.95, "trend": 11.051506, "fair_value": 11.346391, "relative_strength": -0.842795, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.597361, "energy": 46.404336, "activity_lines": [ 10.658, 10.732364, 10.895131, 10.97083 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.73, "volume": 18323251, "typical_volume": 18637176.0, "trend": 11.048668, "fair_value": 11.339978, "relative_strength": -6.942469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.443872, "energy": 28.709774, "activity_lines": [ 10.7, 10.713636, 10.875274, 10.950088 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }