{ "ticker": { "uuid": "943c04cc-e5a5-463f-902f-0b30de7d4bbe", "symbol": "688226", "name": "Wetown Electric Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.574, "architecture_energy": 86.755, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.386, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.15, "rotation_up": 8.44, "upward_expansion": 21.88, "deceleration": 37.03, "rotation_down": 79.78, "downward_expansion": 97.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.122, 33.426182, 41.007429, 43.213226 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 30.139999, "trend_reference": 44.335, "distance_from_trend": -0.320176, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.519222, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.056831, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.587126, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.22955, "excess_performance": -0.186346, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.320176, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006698, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.056831, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.051334, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.295871, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.579961, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.22955, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.444677, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24342871, "relative_activity": 0.625295, "balance": 0.444677, "dry_up": 0.765689, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.210888, "annualized_volatility": 0.681286, "from_high_reference": -0.554603, "from_low_reference": 0.222718 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.335, "fair_value_reference": 28.519222, "structural_low": 24.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.105076, "positive_rate": 0.9, "directional_follow_through": 0.1, "median_excess_return": 0.067244, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.208388, "worst_return": -0.130156, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.343386, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.221503, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.555368, "worst_return": 0.036953, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.086835, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.124421, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.666442, "worst_return": 0.035793, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"close": 36.93, "volume": 28483435, "typical_volume": 38956199.35, "trend": 45.530333, "fair_value": 28.298454, "relative_strength": -16.278452, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.105831, "energy": 57.600553, "activity_lines": [ 40.652, 44.588909, 48.307143, 47.476151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.48, "volume": 32830349, "typical_volume": 39396868.55, "trend": 45.251667, "fair_value": 28.35002, "relative_strength": -28.939642, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.185354, "energy": 71.464633, "activity_lines": [ 36.461333, 41.144, 46.456286, 46.440645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.08, "volume": 35348808, "typical_volume": 39280492.4, "trend": 44.926333, "fair_value": 28.404135, "relative_strength": -32.922877, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -57.166657, "energy": 79.35552, "activity_lines": [ 32.815333, 37.927636, 44.540381, 45.332796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.5, "volume": 26711702, "typical_volume": 39268168.9, "trend": 44.567, "fair_value": 28.447493, "relative_strength": -36.650534, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.297985, "energy": 91.837349, "activity_lines": [ 29.886667, 35.033455, 42.558952, 44.144 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.139999, "volume": 24342871, "typical_volume": 38930233.75, "trend": 44.335, "fair_value": 28.519222, "relative_strength": -29.587126, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.573586, "energy": 86.754947, "activity_lines": [ 29.122, 33.426182, 41.007429, 43.213226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }