{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9440a054-8294-4c5d-a42a-913ce06ff4ed", "symbol": "300565", "name": "Shenzhen Kexin Communication Technologies Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.397, "architecture_energy": 63.313, "architecture_maturity": 25.478, "architecture_confidence": 84.241, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.18, "rotation_up": 14.2, "upward_expansion": 11.81, "deceleration": 45.64, "rotation_down": 68.2, "downward_expansion": 85.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.176667, 9.613273, 11.071952, 11.796882 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.07, "trend_reference": 12.485667, "distance_from_trend": -0.193475, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.592949, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.200346, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.721474, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.198248, "excess_performance": -0.205648, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.193475, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051313, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.200346, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193395, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.217215, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059244, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.198248, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.760456, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64373197, "relative_activity": 0.774956, "balance": 0.760456, "dry_up": 0.668468, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.147659, "annualized_volatility": 0.541397, "from_high_reference": -0.381829, "from_low_reference": 0.311198 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.485667, "fair_value_reference": 12.592949, "structural_low": 7.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.009889, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.018885, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 1.381008, "worst_return": -0.175258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.01944, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.041386, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.908277, "worst_return": -0.319439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.133876, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.043847, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 2.249441, "worst_return": -0.300454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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84.437549, "activity_lines": [ 10.327333, 11.484545, 12.488857, 12.776 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.67, "volume": 57634733, "typical_volume": 94069240.8, "trend": 12.841333, "fair_value": 12.806026, "relative_strength": -31.688535, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.324189, "energy": 89.449768, "activity_lines": [ 9.648, 10.808909, 12.069619, 12.499828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.29, "volume": 52018239, "typical_volume": 88937728.65, "trend": 12.704, "fair_value": 12.744295, "relative_strength": -34.288589, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.038191, "energy": 91.371703, "activity_lines": [ 9.033333, 10.143636, 11.637095, 12.206194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.86, "volume": 48084024, "typical_volume": 86326203.65, "trend": 12.570333, "fair_value": 12.658718, "relative_strength": -28.093829, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.23038, "energy": 84.898796, "activity_lines": [ 8.856, 9.714909, 11.285524, 11.958194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.07, "volume": 64373197, "typical_volume": 83066882.7, "trend": 12.485667, "fair_value": 12.592949, "relative_strength": -21.721474, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.396818, "energy": 63.31262, "activity_lines": [ 9.176667, 9.613273, 11.071952, 11.796882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }