{ "ticker": { "uuid": "944f4906-2230-4cda-816b-b0f2ff21f3c4", "symbol": "GCMG", "name": "GCM Grosvenor Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.508, "architecture_energy": 52.405, "architecture_maturity": 50.245, "architecture_confidence": 68.343, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.8, "rotation_up": 54.02, "upward_expansion": 78.58, "deceleration": 70.39, "rotation_down": 22.82, "downward_expansion": 7.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.926667, 12.755818, 12.021574, 11.596451 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.58, "trend_reference": 11.224659, "distance_from_trend": 0.209836, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.353145, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.311679, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.645537, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.40273, "excess_performance": 0.215276, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.209836, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043631, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.311679, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.177045, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.046455, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.218349, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.40273, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.796701, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2151853, "relative_activity": 0.921163, "balance": 1.796701, "dry_up": 1.207499, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070521, "annualized_volatility": 0.437865, "from_high_reference": -0.055304, "from_low_reference": 0.476576 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.224659, "fair_value_reference": 10.353145, "structural_low": 9.196953, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.012346, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.003892, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.098517, "worst_return": -0.116301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.037645, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.038131, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.171872, "worst_return": -0.164912, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.099395, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.025263, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.261987, "worst_return": -0.160269, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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11.548392, 11.278179 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.2, "volume": 3470681, "typical_volume": 2638569.75, "trend": 11.104183, "fair_value": 10.277588, "relative_strength": -1.133117, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.828832, "energy": 70.824024, "activity_lines": [ 12.786667, 12.385408, 11.660333, 11.35101 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.48, "volume": 1772541, "typical_volume": 2490020.4, "trend": 11.151471, "fair_value": 10.312714, "relative_strength": 0.815406, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.533723, "energy": 50.340047, "activity_lines": [ 12.678, 12.489131, 11.793917, 11.439772 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.58, "volume": 2151853, "typical_volume": 2336016.9, "trend": 11.224659, "fair_value": 10.353145, "relative_strength": 4.645537, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.507679, "energy": 52.405311, "activity_lines": [ 12.926667, 12.755818, 12.021574, 11.596451 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }