{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94503fec-1b1c-4696-bd06-543ea9d0d6fa", "symbol": "BML", "name": "Boab Metals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 86.386, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 5.414, "architecture_energy": 10.216, "architecture_maturity": 56.743, "architecture_confidence": 68.193, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.03, "rotation_up": 32.27, "upward_expansion": 25.36, "deceleration": 47.52, "rotation_down": 20.98, "downward_expansion": 49.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.418333, 0.400727, 0.397119, 0.416495 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.48, "trend_reference": 0.451833, "distance_from_trend": 0.062339, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.229526, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.09127, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.421289, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.032258, "excess_performance": -0.031448, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062339, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023767, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.09127, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087401, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.094213, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088204, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.032258, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.759985, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14704032, "relative_activity": 1.185703, "balance": 0.759985, "dry_up": 0.753342, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11899, "annualized_volatility": 0.850362, "from_high_reference": -0.337931, "from_low_reference": 2.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.451833, "fair_value_reference": 0.229526, "structural_low": 0.335, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.433333, "median_excess_return": -0.007177, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.837838, "worst_return": -0.393939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.075047, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.078369, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.21519, "worst_return": -0.521212, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.217391, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.157144, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.962025, "worst_return": -0.696154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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14940112.2, "trend": 0.4555, "fair_value": 0.225135, "relative_strength": -10.709712, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.045652, "energy": 36.424814, "activity_lines": [ 0.378, 0.378182, 0.392214, 0.42257 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.375, "volume": 7709387, "typical_volume": 14124606.85, "trend": 0.452833, "fair_value": 0.226353, "relative_strength": -7.494115, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.344519, "energy": 28.40546, "activity_lines": [ 0.376333, 0.376818, 0.388619, 0.417376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.41, "volume": 9937296, "typical_volume": 12927524.8, "trend": 0.450833, "fair_value": 0.227635, "relative_strength": -2.282193, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.993406, "energy": 22.021601, "activity_lines": [ 0.388, 0.382545, 0.38931, 0.414613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.48, "volume": 14704032, "typical_volume": 12401106.3, "trend": 0.451833, "fair_value": 0.229526, "relative_strength": 9.421289, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.413828, "energy": 10.215536, "activity_lines": [ 0.418333, 0.400727, 0.397119, 0.416495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }