{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9454f648-703b-4870-b4fe-0d9c2ee694bb", "symbol": "IGLT", "name": "iShares Core UK Gilts UCITS ETF GBP (Dist)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 83.76, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.522, "architecture_energy": 25.792, "architecture_maturity": 28.926, "architecture_confidence": 37.56, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.52, "rotation_up": 39.21, "upward_expansion": 64.06, "deceleration": 63.25, "rotation_down": 22.9, "downward_expansion": 14.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.2628, 11.2696, 11.200613, 11.169061 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.288, "trend_reference": 11.157429, "distance_from_trend": 0.011703, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.889207, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.036623, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.768181, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.010396, "excess_performance": -0.160496, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011703, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006275, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.036623, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010436, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127682, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009621, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010396, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.509227, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40248, "relative_activity": 0.64106, "balance": 0.509227, "dry_up": 1.036107, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013658, "annualized_volatility": 0.074926, "from_high_reference": -0.008259, "from_low_reference": 0.05613 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.157429, "fair_value_reference": 10.889207, "structural_low": 10.782846, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.006771, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.014273, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.027509, "worst_return": -0.032654, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.011462, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.00923, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.033262, "worst_return": -0.03529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.009579, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.096908, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.030928, "worst_return": -0.019853, "sufficient": true }, { 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"energy": 66.216963, "activity_lines": [ 11.317333, 11.257106, 11.164173, 11.15192 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.236, "volume": 75654, "typical_volume": 82903.55, "trend": 11.154701, "fair_value": 10.87385, "relative_strength": -10.73817, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.300562, "energy": 51.698173, "activity_lines": [ 11.2984, 11.266, 11.175877, 11.157467 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.204, "volume": 72451, "typical_volume": 74212.55, "trend": 11.157597, "fair_value": 10.880946, "relative_strength": -11.219424, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.720027, "energy": 32.291447, "activity_lines": [ 11.263467, 11.260836, 11.184517, 11.160648 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.288, "volume": 40248, "typical_volume": 62783.55, "trend": 11.157429, "fair_value": 10.889207, "relative_strength": -12.768181, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.522262, "energy": 25.791781, "activity_lines": [ 11.2628, 11.2696, 11.200613, 11.169061 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }