{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94574c9f-eb08-40fc-a0f0-eb241d754df6", "symbol": "MTS", "name": "MiT Sim S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.979, "architecture_energy": 47.992, "architecture_maturity": 55.282, "architecture_confidence": 82.572, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.78, "rotation_up": 22.28, "upward_expansion": 6.99, "deceleration": 60.82, "rotation_down": 55.02, "downward_expansion": 80.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.408, 1.415091, 1.520286, 1.567677 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.49, "trend_reference": 1.639, "distance_from_trend": -0.090909, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.626026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.432603, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.809847, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.128655, "excess_performance": -0.299547, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.090909, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076793, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.432603, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055343, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.278098, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032333, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.128655, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.014019, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13600, "relative_activity": 1.258094, "balance": 3.014019, "dry_up": 3.575393, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083634, "annualized_volatility": 0.386296, "from_high_reference": -0.460145, "from_low_reference": 0.201613 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.639, "fair_value_reference": 2.626026, "structural_low": 1.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.027966, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.04295, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.191257, "worst_return": -0.12844, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.012072, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.079048, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.092896, "worst_return": -0.343333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.079709, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.244286, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.206612, "worst_return": -0.296512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.206612, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.461511, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.154545, "worst_return": -0.320225, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04712, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027174, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05618, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.143617, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.3, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.177419, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054795, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.330097, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-23", 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1.680048, 1.705763 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 1.51, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4600.0, "trend": 1.737, "fair_value": 2.713654, "relative_strength": -32.227089, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.479717, "energy": 72.408963, "activity_lines": [ 1.564, 1.639455, 1.663381, 1.690258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.35, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4350.0, "trend": 1.716667, "fair_value": 2.700128, "relative_strength": -40.075219, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.443781, "energy": 89.929357, "activity_lines": [ 1.480667, 1.580182, 1.632429, 1.66529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.34, "volume": 3600, "typical_volume": 4200.0, "trend": 1.699, "fair_value": 2.68641, "relative_strength": -39.109618, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.763407, "energy": 93.311332, "activity_lines": [ 1.419333, 1.524727, 1.602429, 1.640989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.31, "volume": 28200, "typical_volume": 5260.0, "trend": 1.681667, "fair_value": 2.671346, "relative_strength": -38.294296, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.756812, "energy": 92.569615, "activity_lines": [ 1.366, 1.470545, 1.572048, 1.615892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.33, "volume": 45600, "typical_volume": 7380.0, "trend": 1.664, "fair_value": 2.656026, "relative_strength": -35.868322, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.414802, "energy": 88.286732, "activity_lines": [ 1.341333, 1.427818, 1.545524, 1.593204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.43, "volume": 67200, "typical_volume": 10620.0, "trend": 1.651667, "fair_value": 2.640833, "relative_strength": -30.017426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.266415, "energy": 65.436799, "activity_lines": [ 1.362, 1.412545, 1.52981, 1.578108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.49, "volume": 13600, "typical_volume": 10810.0, "trend": 1.639, "fair_value": 2.626026, "relative_strength": -27.809847, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.979327, "energy": 47.992257, "activity_lines": [ 1.408, 1.415091, 1.520286, 1.567677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }