{ "ticker": { "uuid": "945a72bf-72b2-4fe0-b3c9-124b347b8769", "symbol": "HRTG", "name": "Heritage Insurance Hldgs Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 86.05, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.285, "architecture_energy": 83.972, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.758, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.06, "rotation_up": 85.48, "upward_expansion": 95.42, "deceleration": 39.21, "rotation_down": 8.36, "downward_expansion": 17.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.785333, 28.142545, 26.466524, 26.248258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 32.74, "trend_reference": 26.047667, "distance_from_trend": 0.256926, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.401923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.996107, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.807117, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.23361, "excess_performance": 0.107985, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.256926, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023225, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.996107, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.465075, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.118071, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.330682, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.23361, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.036737, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2421872, "relative_activity": 1.27012, "balance": 4.036737, "dry_up": 0.872747, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074485, "annualized_volatility": 0.539731, "from_high_reference": -0.103014, "from_low_reference": 0.604116 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.047667, "fair_value_reference": 16.401923, "structural_low": 20.48, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.274576, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.283611, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.575758, "worst_return": -0.378102, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.38475, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.266908, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.627706, "worst_return": -0.616992, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.390147, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.224012, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.948052, "worst_return": -0.664497, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"volume": 1141618, "typical_volume": 1880324.7, "trend": 25.773333, "fair_value": 16.066282, "relative_strength": 0.103052, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.995226, "energy": 41.194105, "activity_lines": [ 27.436, 25.998364, 25.427476, 25.571247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.37, "volume": 1832945, "typical_volume": 1866046.9, "trend": 25.843, "fair_value": 16.225705, "relative_strength": 4.259956, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.006059, "energy": 55.779365, "activity_lines": [ 28.166, 26.823091, 25.789238, 25.80329 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.74, "volume": 2421872, "typical_volume": 1906805.2, "trend": 26.047667, "fair_value": 16.401923, "relative_strength": 11.807117, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.284925, "energy": 83.971734, "activity_lines": [ 29.785333, 28.142545, 26.466524, 26.248258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }