{ "ticker": { "uuid": "945d0ea3-d09a-46cb-8f81-236fdbe38091", "symbol": "BMRN", "name": "BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 88.676, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.448, "architecture_energy": 62.238, "architecture_maturity": 13.037, "architecture_confidence": 58.505, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.81, "rotation_up": 71.29, "upward_expansion": 82.92, "deceleration": 53.48, "rotation_down": 12.61, "downward_expansion": 9.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.886666, 52.107636, 50.209619, 49.698623 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 54.84, "trend_reference": 49.274, "distance_from_trend": 0.11296, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 63.173526, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.131915, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.189317, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.115087, "excess_performance": -0.059159, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.11296, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020377, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.131915, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.172386, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081893, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123283, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.115087, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.133863, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 510, "relative_activity": 3.154964, "balance": 1.133863, "dry_up": 2.689453, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042235, "annualized_volatility": 0.269847, "from_high_reference": -0.018611, "from_low_reference": 0.282207 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.274, "fair_value_reference": 63.173526, "structural_low": 42.77, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.00325, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.009119, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.069517, "worst_return": -0.105392, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.039084, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.0111, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.140774, "worst_return": -0.120049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.030228, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.049449, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.217472, "worst_return": -0.27598, "sufficient": false }, { 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.131508, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.073041, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093137, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.155869, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12632, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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110.65, "trend": 48.698, "fair_value": 64.19109, "relative_strength": -12.668138, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.475358, "energy": 39.906537, "activity_lines": [ 49.685332, 48.403454, 48.011428, 48.375183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 52.139999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 91.15, "trend": 48.908, "fair_value": 64.030064, "relative_strength": -14.232906, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.128044, "energy": 60.101876, "activity_lines": [ 50.687999, 49.247272, 48.348, 48.597247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 51.720001, "volume": 420, "typical_volume": 112.15, "trend": 49.126, "fair_value": 63.87391, "relative_strength": -13.311939, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.310679, "energy": 63.353417, "activity_lines": [ 51.223333, 49.893272, 48.636095, 48.778666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.139999, "volume": 271, "typical_volume": 114.45, "trend": 49.096, "fair_value": 63.70109, "relative_strength": -10.40213, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.14737, "energy": 68.754962, "activity_lines": [ 51.763333, 50.521999, 48.975333, 48.973118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.939999, "volume": 227, "typical_volume": 99.6, "trend": 49.111333, "fair_value": 63.528398, "relative_strength": -11.44215, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.258086, "energy": 71.666573, "activity_lines": [ 51.989333, 50.99909, 49.299809, 49.156602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.82, "volume": 731, "typical_volume": 136.15, "trend": 49.147333, "fair_value": 63.344167, "relative_strength": -11.087493, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.039674, "energy": 51.06366, "activity_lines": [ 51.924, 51.326181, 49.609238, 49.331355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.84, "volume": 510, "typical_volume": 161.65, "trend": 49.274, "fair_value": 63.173526, "relative_strength": -8.189317, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.447974, "energy": 62.237848, "activity_lines": [ 52.886666, 52.107636, 50.209619, 49.698623 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }