{ "ticker": { "uuid": "945d8463-5fdd-4601-8f55-f17513667614", "symbol": "600397", "name": "Jiangxi Tungsten Rare And Precious Equipment Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.523, "architecture_energy": 28.92, "architecture_maturity": 74.672, "architecture_confidence": 91.299, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.37, "rotation_up": 23.16, "upward_expansion": 52.15, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 48.39, "downward_expansion": 29.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.614667, 17.585273, 16.880953, 16.417828 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 18.41, "trend_reference": 15.394333, "distance_from_trend": 0.195895, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.241538, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.949593, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 56.483204, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.837325, "excess_performance": 0.880529, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.195895, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.309822, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.949593, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07938, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.564832, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004019, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.837325, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.752021, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 529198749, "relative_activity": 2.236101, "balance": 0.752021, "dry_up": 1.561068, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.195671, "annualized_volatility": 1.252889, "from_high_reference": -0.353808, "from_low_reference": 2.048013 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.394333, "fair_value_reference": 6.241538, "structural_low": 9.7, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.073282, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.047261, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.88326, "worst_return": -0.113281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.253112, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.195787, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.672185, "worst_return": 0.034323, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.493827, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.294968, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.976584, "worst_return": 0.122924, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"red", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.129808, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.279279, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.896414, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.253086, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.161937, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.253112, 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"activity_lines": [ 22.002667, 19.352909, 17.350619, 16.311893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.67, "volume": 309048969, "typical_volume": 253449640.2, "trend": 14.644667, "fair_value": 6.012115, "relative_strength": 45.325234, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.911312, "energy": 63.697891, "activity_lines": [ 20.196, 19.008364, 17.244619, 16.396946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.85, "volume": 330209476, "typical_volume": 238360588.75, "trend": 14.867667, "fair_value": 6.081667, "relative_strength": 25.164897, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.494551, "energy": 14.68535, "activity_lines": [ 17.719333, 18.327273, 16.993191, 16.345678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.61, "volume": 309321322, "typical_volume": 229029872.1, "trend": 15.034, "fair_value": 6.143141, "relative_strength": 12.334846, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.732558, "energy": 23.658582, "activity_lines": [ 15.252667, 17.422364, 16.652905, 16.200022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.41, "volume": 529198749, "typical_volume": 236661394.3, "trend": 15.394333, "fair_value": 6.241538, "relative_strength": 56.483204, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.522874, "energy": 28.920439, "activity_lines": [ 15.614667, 17.585273, 16.880953, 16.417828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }