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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.243, "architecture_energy": 90.615, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.648, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.63, "rotation_up": 73.03, "upward_expansion": 93.28, "deceleration": 46.06, "rotation_down": 17.89, "downward_expansion": 19.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 99.108219, 99.047075, 98.945231, 98.827141 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 99.21, "trend_reference": 98.633444, "distance_from_trend": 0.005845, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 93.968956, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.055774, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.865624, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.011274, "excess_performance": -0.11435, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005845, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004994, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.055774, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005427, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.098656, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000449, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011274, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 11.843286, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1713424, "relative_activity": 1.002736, "balance": 11.843286, "dry_up": 0.929123, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.000943, "annualized_volatility": 0.005774, "from_high_reference": -0.000202, "from_low_reference": 0.031277 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 98.633444, "fair_value_reference": 93.968956, "structural_low": 98.113818, 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"relative_strength": -6.450977, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.611678, "energy": 63.456806, "activity_lines": [ 98.98341, 98.968527, 98.873445, 98.748965 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 99.134092, "volume": 1661757, "typical_volume": 1759826.75, "trend": 98.588307, "fair_value": 93.892853, "relative_strength": -7.077638, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.436254, "energy": 73.047801, "activity_lines": [ 99.035064, 99.004144, 98.90744, 98.787031 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 99.21, "volume": 1713424, "typical_volume": 1708748.3, "trend": 98.633444, "fair_value": 93.968956, "relative_strength": -9.865624, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.24338, "energy": 90.615018, "activity_lines": [ 99.108219, 99.047075, 98.945231, 98.827141 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }